Hawaii taxpayers deserve some relief, and this year, they got it. With little advance debate, legislative leaders put together a tax cut package that amounts to the “largest income tax cut for working families in the state’s history,” as Gov. Josh Green stated on Monday, in signing it into law.
When Green introduced his tax package, it focused more tightly on relief for working families including children, with incomes at median levels or below. But it’s an election year, so legislative leaders decided to give up tax revenues from a far wider swath of working residents — all of them.
The breaks begin right away, and properly: Hawaii’s regressive standard deduction, which was set at an unconscionably stingy $2,200 for an individual, doubles for tax year 2024. The standard deduction — a share of earnings that isn’t taxed — will then rise every two years through 2030, expanding the pool of people who will pay no income tax on their very low earnings, and exempting a larger share of all workers’ income from tax with each increment.
Beginning in 2025, the law also adjusts tax brackets upward, raising the income at which earners move into a higher-tax bracket every two years through 2031.
For working people in Hawaii earning less than the median income, a reduction in Hawaii’s base tax rates is clearly warranted, as they often must stretch or juggle bills just to meet basic living costs. For a family of four earning $88,000, the state projects annual income tax would fall from about $5,100 in 2023, to $1,500 in 2031 — a 71% tax cut.
Green predicts that tax revenues from economic growth, rising incomes and added jobs will balance out the costs, noting that tax cuts put more money into circulation. Trepidation remains, however, over whether Hawaii’s economy is truly vital enough to bring about enough increased revenue to match the cuts.
Hawaii has attempted to cut income tax rates before, and in 1998, the Legislature approved tax reform that cut the top income tax rate altogether, down to 8.25% from 10%. This strategy cumulatively benefited top earners far more than the current tax bill does. The Legislature was right to realize its mistake when tax revenues tanked 10 years later, during the Great Recession, and overrode a veto by then-Gov. Linda Lingle in order to raise the top income tax rate to 11%. That rate applies today to individuals earning more than $200,000 annually.
Today’s new tax law retains this 11% top rate, but raises the income required to enter the highest bracket. That’s justified, since Hawaii’s tax brackets have not been adjusted for inflation since the 1970s. On the other hand, the multiplier effect on phased-in cuts is estimated to result in a $1.4 billion reduction in tax revenue by 2032. If revenues do turn out to fall short, Hawaii should consider adding new tax brackets, with higher top rates for the highest earners. Studies of nationwide tax impacts on those with the highest incomes over the past 50 years show that these adjustments — whether higher or lower taxes — have minimal effect on the economy.
Still, decisions on future income tax increases can be made if and when revenues don’t meet the state’s public needs. And there are other avenues for revenue that should be explored. A positive one (at least on the ledger sheet): The governor pledged to comb through state payrolls for positions that could be eliminated, saying “hundreds of millions” of dollars could potentially be saved.
Green also unsuccessfully proposed raising the state conveyance tax on homes selling for more than $6 million, with the higher rate kicking in at $2 million for homes bought by nonresident owners. This tack should be revived to raise revenue for housing initiatives.
Residents concerned about rising costs to mitigate climate change and rising sea levels must also call on the Legislature — and the tourism industry — to get on board with a tourist “green fee,” for stays in Hawaii’s hotels, which could be applied to environmental needs. For two years running, the green fee has been rejected by legislators swayed by tourist industry objections. A University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) analysis of a $25 green fee’s effect on tourism in April found effects would be negligible — but also identified a better-targeted solution: a $3.50 daily visitor fee that could raise the same revenue, about $68 million annually, with less negative impact on kamaaina travelers. Charging lodging “use” fees is becoming increasingly common in tourist destinations worldwide, and it’s an idea whose time has come in Hawaii.
State government is required by Hawaii’s Constitution to balance its budget — but lawmakers should not make cuts to social services if revenues begin to fall short. Should that happen, the tax code can and must be further adjusted to enable the state to meet vulnerable residents’ needs.
Overall, though, these bold tax cuts serve as a welcome reset, allowing for new scrutiny of state tax and spending patterns.