A whale-watch tour — a staple of winter vacationers to Maui — may be the hot ticket this year as much of the island’s commercial tour fleet was wiped out in the wildfire that ripped through Lahaina town and across its harbor.

Scientists, meanwhile, will closely observe what impacts, if any, the aftermath of the fire might have on humpback whales during the upcoming season.

At least 80 boats moored in Lahaina Small Boat Harbor were destroyed by the Aug. 8 inferno, including 45 commercial permit holders, a group that represents 50% or more of Maui’s tour boat operators.

U.S. Coast Guard contractors continue to remove sunken vessels and debris from the harbor, and the state Department of Land and Natural Resources aims to rebuild the harbor in a project that could last up to two years or more.

While a limited number of whale-watching tours are expected to be available at Maalaea and Kaanapali, Lahaina is the whale-watching capital of Hawaii due to its usually sunny, calm weather on the lee side of Maui and the fact that more whales ply the channel between Lahaina and Lanai than anywhere else in the islands.

This year the humpback whales, which annually travel to Hawaii from Alaska to breed and give birth, might not have to contend with that much boat traffic with Lahaina harbor out of business.

“Most Lahaina boats either sank or have no place to operate,” said Jim Coon, a veteran Lahaina boat captain and president of the Ocean Tourism Coalition.

Keao Shaw, owner of Makai Adventures, not only lost his primary boat to the fire, but he lost his home, his car and his own personal boat, which was parked at his Lahaina home. The only thing left of his business is a small six-seater sailboat that operates out of Kaanapali under the name Kainani Sails.

“It’s a very small part of the business,” he said.

Following the fire, Shaw ordered a replacement boat that is expected to arrive at the end of this month or in December. He was hoping to operate out of Kaanapali while the harbor is being rebuilt, but so far DLNR is saying no — and there is no other place where he can operate from.

The Mala Wharf ramp is not an option either as DLNR is allowing only the current 16 commercial permit holders to operate there on weekdays.

Right now, Shaw said, he’s either looking at shutting down for two or three years or going out of business.

“It’s a hard place to be without a lot of compassion from the DLNR chairperson,” he said.

Board of Land and Natural Resources Chair Dawn Chang told boaters at a meeting in Kahului last week that she and her staff understand the hardships many operators are facing but that they are trying to balance the boaters’ demands with the needs of the resource.

Thor Lindstrom’s company, Lahaina Maritime, also ground to a halt after his 33-foot Boston Whaler Outrage sank in the harbor during the fire.

The former veterinarian bought his business at the beginning of 2022 and was starting to draw strong business from slip 37 — strong enough to order a new boat. The sale closed coincidentally Aug. 7, the day before the fire.

Although the new boat is expected to arrive on island this week, he remains unsure about whether he will be able to operate anywhere else on the island, considering the limited space available.

“I have no idea if I’ll be able to work this season,” he said.

In a stronger position is Trilogy Excursions, a veteran Maui company that was started on the Valley Isle over 50 years ago. Trilogy operated seven vessels before the fire but lost one in Lahaina harbor.

Coon, the veteran boat captain and chairman of the Trilogy Corp. board, credited divine providence for sparing four of the company’s five vessels based in Lahaina. Three of them survived the firestorm anchored outside the harbor, while another one in the harbor barely escaped the carnage.

Overall, the company took a hit of “well over a million dollars,” he said, and the Coons also lost their family home.

“We have a lot to be grateful for,” Coon said. “None of our employees were killed in the fire. Anything beyond that is an added bonus.”

Trilogy normally operates out of three locations: Lahaina, Kaanapali and Maalaea. DLNR is allowing companies to share slips at Maalaea.

Coon said the company will continue to operate as long as there are tourists wanting an on-the-water experience. One of the most lucrative times of the year is whale-watching season, which begins in earnest around Christmas and extends through March.

But what kind of demand will there be in the wake of a disaster that killed at least 99 people and destroyed some 2,200 homes?

It’s generally slow going so far, with the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization suggesting that an 80% recovery of pre-fire visitor levels isn’t expected for Maui until the end of 2024.

Scientists, meanwhile, are also wondering how the firestorm might affect Maui’s whale season.

Marc Lammers, research ecologist with the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, said he and other whale researchers have been wondering whether contaminants from the fire will affect the whales and whether fewer boats in the water will lead to any behavioral changes.

The contaminants in the water off Lahaina are expected to peak during and after the first big rainstorm, but there’s already concern about water quality.

Russell Sparks, state Division of Aquatic Resources biologist, told boaters last week that while water testing hasn’t come back from the lab yet, he expects elevated levels of lead and arsenic, similar to what the state Department of Health found in the ash in Kula.

“The water may look clear. It may look perfectly fine. But we really do not know,” Sparks said.

He strongly urged people to minimize or avoid entering the water. He also advised boaters not to fish or eat any fish caught off Lahaina.

Lammers said that while the whales don’t hunt and eat while they’re in Hawaii waters, there are other pathways through which harmful toxins could enter their bodies.

Lammers said he expects to look at water samples from the Lahaina area, collect tissue samples from the whales and look for any indications the animals are ingesting or absorbing chemicals from the water.

Whether the whales show any sensitivity to the chemicals may be hard to determine. If they appear to avoid the area, that could be one indication, he said.

Lammers said researchers will also look at any response from the whales to having fewer boats in the water. In 2020, boat traffic virtually stopped for the pandemic, although that was late in the season. Still, the whales lingered in the area a couple of weeks later than normal, he said.

“Because there was less traffic, did it influence their decision to stay longer? We don’t know,” he said.

While the whales might enjoy a bit more privacy this year, there is a potential downside.

Ed Lyman, natural resource specialist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said fewer boats in the channel means fewer eyes on the water and the potential for fewer reports of whale entanglements.

“They are our first responders,” said Lyman, who is also a NOAA regional large-whale entanglement coordinator.