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Tropical storm holds steady, hurricane weakens far from isles

CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
                                The 5-day forecast track for Tropical Storm Greg.
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CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER

The 5-day forecast track for Tropical Storm Greg.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
                                The 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Fernanda.
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

The 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Fernanda.

CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
                                The 5-day forecast track for Tropical Storm Greg.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
                                The 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Fernanda.

UPDATE 5 p.m.

Tropical Storm Greg “appears to be starting the anticipated turn to the west-northwest” on a path that will cause it to pass several hundred miles south of Hawaii, while Hurricane Fernanda continues weakening over open waters in the Pacific Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center, in an update this afternoon, said “confidence is high” that Greg will turn toward the west Wednesday night and Thursday, putting it on track to pass the isles to the south.

The greatest chance for intensifying winds, currently with max winds at 50 mph, will be over the next day or so, when it could have winds up to 60 mph.

“The statistical models are showing slight intensification over the next day or so followed by little change for several days,” the NHC said. “Conversely, the dynamical models show little to no short term intensification, followed by steady weakening through the next four days, possibly due to drier air aloft disrupting Greg and slightly cooler SST (sea surface temperatures) along the forecast track.”

Greg is about 930 miles southeast of Honolulu and 725 miles southeast of Hilo. It is moving west at 14 mph.

Fernanda is further from Hawaii, at about 1,000 miles from the southern tip of Baja California, and is weakening in the open Pacific Ocean.

Fernanda, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, is also moving west at 14 mph, but the hurricane center said that it is forecast to experience “rapid weakening” over the next two days, and “is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday.”

The hurricane center said, “Fernanda’s inner core is becoming increasingly ragged, likely due to the unfavorable combination of mid-level shear undercutting its outflow, very dry mid-level environmental air, and sea-surface temperatures which are quickly decreasing.”

Around this time Thursday its winds will fall to about 35 mph.

Fernanda’s track has shifted south a bit, officials said, possibly as a result of its rapid weakening that allows low-level trade wind flow to steer it.

11:30 a.m.

Tropical Storm Greg continues to hold steady in the Central Pacific as Hurricane Fernanda resumes weakening in the East Pacific. Neither storm is expected to pose a threat to Hawaii.

As of 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Greg was 995 miles southeast of Honolulu and 790 miles southeast of Hilo with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph with stronger gusts, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. The storm was moving west at 14 mph.

Although Greg is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest today, then west on Thursday, weather officials expect it to shift toward the west-southwest on Friday.

Despite some strengthening expected today, Greg should weaken Thursday and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from Greg’s center.

Hurricane Fernanda in the East Pacific, meanwhile, started weakening again with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph with higher gusts as of 11 a.m., according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm was moving west at 12 mph.

Fernanda is expected to continue on a westward track, with slight acceleration over the next several days.

More weakening is forecast over the next few days with Fernanda expected to become a tropical storm Wednesday and a tropical depression Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from Fernanda’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

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The tropical storm and hurricane moving westward and expected to pass well south of the islands both held steady overnight.

As of 5 a.m., Tropical Storm Greg was located about 1,060 miles southeast of Honolulu and 850 miles southeast of Hilo with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. The storm was moving west at 14 mph.

Although Greg is expected to take a gradual turn to the west-northwest today, weather officials still expect it to pass hundreds of miles south of the islands. And though Greg is forecast to strengthen over the next 36 hours, forecasters say it should not reach hurricane strength.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from Greg’s center.

Meanwhile, in the East Pacific, Fernanda remained a Category 2 hurricane as of 5 a.m. with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph with higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The storm was moving west-northwest at 12 mph.

Weather officials expect Fernanda to maintain a west-northwestward to westward track with an increase in forward speed over the next few days but also passing well south of the islands. Fernanda is forecast to resume weakening over the next several days, likely becoming a tropical storm Wednesday and a tropical depression Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from Fernanda’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

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