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Calvin is on track toward Hawaii island as weak tropical storm

COURTESY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
                                The track for Hurricane Calvin as of 11 p.m.

COURTESY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

The track for Hurricane Calvin as of 11 p.m.

UPDATE: 11 p.m.

Hurricane Calvin continued to weaken as it moved toward the Central Pacific this evening.

Calvin, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, is located 1,455 miles east of Hilo. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Calvin is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin overnight Sunday into Monday morning. The National Hurricane Center said weakening is forecast to continue the next several days.

5 p.m.

Hurricane Calvin, which is moving west-northwestward, is expected to maintain a path toward Hawaii island as a weak tropical storm. Forecasters said Calvin will move into the Central Pacific Basin on Monday morning.

As of 5 p.m., Calvin was packing maximum sustained winds of 100 mph with higher gusts. Calvin was centered about 1,550 miles east of Hilo and about 1,530 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Calvin is over sea surface temperatures of 25 Celsius and will be over 24 Celsius water in about 24 hours, which will cause it to weaken over the next 25 to 36 hours, forecasters said. Sea surface temperatures are expected to stay below 26 Celsius until the system passes near Hawaii, forecasters said.

“The consensus of the guidance during this time is that Calvin will continue to weaken while producing intermittent bursts of convection, and that is the basis for keeping it a tropical storm,” forecasters said.

Forecasters said it appears likely that Calvin will maintain tropical-storm-force winds as it moves near the Big Island and should eventually degenerate into a remnant low-pressure area or trough.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, forecasters said.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

10:46 a.m.

Hurricane Calvin, which is currently moving westward in the East Pacific, is forecasted to approach the Big Island on Tuesday or early Wednesday as a tropical storm.

“It is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts given uncertainties in the track, intensity, and structure of Calvin as it approaches the islands,” forecasters said.

At 11 a.m., the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Calvin was packing maximum sustained winds of 100 mph with higher gusts, and was centered about 1,660 miles east of Hilo, moving west at 16 mph. Calvin is expected to continue in “this general motion at a similar or slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days,” forecasters said.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

High swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands early next week.

“These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office,” forecasters said.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center as tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

The next advisory update is expected at 5 p.m. today.

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Calvin, a weakening hurricane in the East Pacific, is expected to pass “very close to, and possibly over, the islands from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, bringing the potential for locally strong wind gusts, flooding rain, and high surf,” forecasters said this morning.

The National Weather Service in Honolulu advised the public to “stay tuned for forecast updates as Calvin moves closer to Hawaii over the next couple of days.”

At 5 a.m., the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Hurricane Calvin had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, and was centered 1,750 miles southeast of Hilo, moving west-northwest at 16 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 125 miles.

On its current forecast track, Calvin would be approaching the Big Island early Wednesday as a weak tropical storm, with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph, then move near or over the rest of the islands over the following two days as a post-tropical remnant low with 35 mph winds, according to the hurricane center.

“Calvin is forecast to move across the central Pacific Ocean and approach the Hawaiian islands early next week. It is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts given uncertainties in the track, intensity, and structure of Calvin as it approaches the islands. Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast updates,” the center said at 5 a.m.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin reaching the islands early next week, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, officials said.

Calvin should move into the Central Pacific by Monday morning and toward the Hawaii island Tuesday and Wednesday, they said. “The guidance is reasonably well clustered on a track near or over the Big Island of Hawaii, but any potential impacts will be dictated by the track details that are still quite uncertain at this time.”

Calvin peaked Friday as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, but has been weakening ever since and is expected to continue declining in strength.

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