A rush of travelers to Hawaii is expected for the Memorial Day weekend, the kickoff to summer, but there are signs in the state’s visitor industry that the season may not be as robust as last year.

Traditionally, the peak summer travel season in Hawaii runs from Memorial Day through Labor Day. Arrivals from the United States over the current three-day weekend are forecast to reach 28,057, a decrease from the 32,267 tourist arrivals that came during last year’s holiday and from the 35,723 who came in 2019, according to a report from ARC/ForwardKeys Destination Gateway.

Jennifer Chun, director of tourism research for the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, presented the report to the Hawaii Tourism Authority board of directors Thursday.

What is behind the slight summer cool-down? For starters, there are fewer airline seats allocated to Hawaii’s top U.S. market than last year, said Jeffrey Eslinger, senior director of market insights for the Hawai‘i Visitors & Convention Bureau, which was awarded a multiyear, $34 million contract Monday to market Hawaii and brand the destination to U.S. visitors.

“In 2023, we still have more U.S. seats into the market compared to 2019, but less when compared to 2022,” Eslinger said, adding that a recent trend toward travelers booking rental cars and hotel rooms before airlines also has made it harder for airlines to forecast traveler demand.

HVCB market data shows that total airline seats for this year are projected to drop 3.2% from 2022, while summer airline seats are forecast to fall 0.5% for June, 4.2% for July and 1.6% for August, he said. Oahu, which had been slower to recover from the pandemic than the other islands, is the only isle where seats are projected to increase for each of the summer months and for the year.

Chun said, “Going into 2023 and 2024, DBEDT is acknowledging softening in the U.S. West and U.S. East.”

Also, international travel to Hawaii is still recovering as evidenced by a lackluster Golden Week, a series of four national Japanese holidays that took place this year from April 29 to May 5. Arrivals from Japan to Hawaii for that period reached only about 2,415 in 2022, and about 10,678 this year, according to data from ARC/ForwardKeys Destination Gateway.

In contrast, during Golden Week 2019, Hawaii saw some 26,980 tourist arrivals, the data showed.

Eslinger expects airline seats from Canada will grow 0.2% this year compared to 2019. However, his data shows that airline seats for many of Hawaii’s top international markets this year are still down from 2019, including a 34.6% drop in seats from Australia, a 43.5% fall from Japan, a 25% decline from New Zealand, and a 14.9% decrease from South Korea.

Direct scheduled service from China and Taiwan to Hawaii is still nonexistent in this year’s schedule, he said.

Mufi Hannemann, president and CEO of the Hawai‘i Lodging & Tourism Association, said growing arrivals from international markets as well as bringing in more travelers to participate in meetings, incentive trips, conventions and events are critical to improving Hawaii’s tourism performance this summer and beyond.

“We definitely want to see a summer bump and we want to get Japan accelerated sooner rather than later. They are starting to open up and we have to come up with some creative programs to get them here,” he said.

Hannemann added that Hawaii also must focus on attracting large meetings and conferences, which he said creates a base of business allowing the state to better manage tourism and lodging companies to leverage demand.

Indeed, hotels showed weakening performance in the most recent Hawaii Hotel Performance Report. The report, published last week by the Hawai‘i Tourism Authority using data from STR, said revenue per available room, or RevPAR, in hotels across the state fell 2.2% to $278, while occupancy dropped 2 percentage points to 73.9%.

The average daily rate paid for a hotel room in Hawaii increased 0.5% to $376 per night. Hotel room demand and total revenues also were lower in April than they were in April 2022.

Also Thursday, DBEDT reported that vacation rentals across Hawaii had lower demand and occupancy in April compared to April 2022. Average monthly unit occupancy for a vacation rental last month was 56.6%, a drop of 15.8 percentage points from the same month last year.

A reason might be that Hawaii removed its COVID-­related entry restrictions in March 2022, releasing the pent-up demand for travel last year. Hawaii also is now facing greater competition as most global destinations have fully reopened to travel.

THERE IS still very high visitor sentiment toward Hawaii as evidenced by the Visitor Satisfaction and Activity Survey released Friday by DBEDT. Nearly 89% of visitors from the eastern United States who were surveyed rated their most recent trip as “excellent,” followed by 88% from the western United States, 85.5% from South Korea, 85% from Canada, 78% from Japan, and almost 74% from Oceania.

However, higher prices are a growing concern, especially for a destination that relies on international travelers leery of unfavorable exchange rates. In general, inflation, logistics and operational adjustments to airlines, such as limiting the number of flights, already have caused travel prices to soar above pre-pandemic times.

Hopper, a provider of travel data, predicts that average domestic airfares will peak next month at $328 for a round-trip ticket, which is down from last summer’s record of $400 but 4% higher than in 2019. There are some last-minute deals on domestic flights, Hopper found, but international fares are their highest in more than five years.

For the travel industry, the big question is how long consumers can keep paying for airline tickets and accommodations while they try to deal with stubborn high inflation, news of layoffs and bank failures, and fear of a recession. Industry executives say consumers are favoring the experience of travel over other types of spending, but some analysts see cracks in the strong demand for travel that began in early 2022.

Keith Vieira, principal of KV & Associates, said global geopolitical issues, especially in Europe, also are taking their toll, and Hawaii isn’t alone. Vieira said he has seen signs of a weaker summer in Tahiti, where he also consults.

Hawaii Hotel Alliance President Jerry Gibson said, “Our pace for summer is certainly muted (compared) to 2022. I’m not sure if people are waiting to see what happens with the debt ceiling and the economy, but it’s certainly not as robust as it was in the summer of 2022.”

Gibson said a hope of hoteliers this summer, like last, is that they might see summer bookings pick up later in the season.

“Although we did well for summer last year, it was last minute … ,” he said. “Although we are looking right now to be softer, we certainly hope it will improve.”

Vieira said traveler booking windows have shortened, so it’s possible Hawaii will see gains in summer bookings over the summer, especially as some travel sellers are making value-­added offers, such as a fourth night free with a three-night stay, to stimulate demand.

“In and of itself, there’s nothing wrong with reacting to a down market, but summer should not be a down market,” he said.

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.