Tua Tagovailoa entered the 2022 NFL season — his third — at one career crossroads and left it at an entirely different one.
Tagovailoa’s first two seasons in the league, as the Dolphins’ presumptive quarterback of the future, were promising but far from convincing. His touchdown-to-interception ratio was less than 2-to-1. He passed for less than 200 yards per game.
The 2016 Star-Advertiser state Offensive Player of the Year was trending in the right direction at least, improving his completion percentage to 67.8 in 2021 from 64.1% a year earlier and his yards per game to 204.1 from 181.4. That placed him an impressive seventh among all QBs in completion percentage but only 29th in yards per game, indicating that his lofty completion rate was at least partially a function of a dink-and-dunk passing game. Tagovailoa also ranked 29th in intended air yards per pass attempt with just 7 in 2021, down from 7.5 in his rookie season. That’s a fairly new statistic, and one most of us can’t contextualize easily. So for reference, Russell Wilson led the league in IAY/PA that season at 9.9, more than 40% higher than Tua’s number.
The NFL is not as patient with young quarterbacks as it was 20 — or even 10 — years ago, and with the early success of Justin Herbert — taken sixth by the Chargers in the 2020 draft, one pick after Tua — some were quick to label Tagovailoa a bust. There were credible reports that offseason that Miami was ready to give up on him and trade for Texans QB Deshaun Watson, who had been accused by two dozen women of sexual assault and/or harassment during massage therapy sessions and whose playing status was unsettled.
Tagovailoa’s 2022 season silenced any doubts about his talent and took the word “bust” out of play. He led the league in a whole mess of passing categories, both traditional ones such as quarterback rating (105.5), yards per completion (13.7) and yards per attempt (8.9) and new-fangled “analytics” indices for things such as adjusted net yards and adjusted net yards.
He improved his TD-to INT ratio to more than 3-to-1 and his yards per game to 272.9. His completion percentage fell to 64.8, but his IAY/PA lept to 9.5, second in the league behind … fellow Saint Louis alumnus Marcus Mariota (10.4). Tagovailoa was in the discussion for league MVP about midway through the season.
With all that in mind, I hope he at least considers walking away from football.
Tua has had two concussions diagnosed this season — a third seems possible, if not likely — causing him to miss five games, including the Dolphins’ last two of the regular season and a playoff loss to the Bills. Every player reacts to and recovers from concussions differently, but there are enough stories of how concussions (especially multiple concussions) affect players in the long term that any player afflicted with some should consider how continuing to play might affect their life after football. Even if you regard suicide and other violent episodes as rare, players talk about terminal headaches and memory loss.
Most importantly, I hope that as he makes this decision, he is getting some advice from outside the Dolphins organization and from doctors other than the team physicians. The Dolphins finally seemed to take the situation seriously after being called out for the way they handled Tagovailoa’s early-season head injuries — letting him re-enter a game against the Bills in September after he appeared dazed after his head hit the ground and then starting him against the Bengals four days later, a game that saw him knocked out and stretchered off the field after he hit his head on the ground yet again.
But they also sent Tua back out for the second half after his head hit the ground late in the first half against the Packers on Christmas Day, leaving a dazed Tua out there to throw three interceptions as they fought for a playoff spot.
In short, I don’t trust ’em.
I want to make it 100% clear that I am not being so presumptuous as to advise, suggest or recommend that Tagovailoa retire. That’s a decision for only him (along with his wife, Annah) to make. He knows his medicals. He knows how important football is to him. He has his own vision for what the rest of his life will be like, including whether he wants siblings for their young son, Ace.
Tua doesn’t strike me as a “money” guy, but it’s natural that it’d be a consideration. Even if the Dolphins made him pay back a prorated portion of his signing bonus if he retired now, he’d have earned about $20 million in his career, enough to live a comfortable life. But he’s due another nearly $5 million next season and Miami has until May 1 to exercise his 2024 option, which would be worth more than $22 million. And his next contract? Well, the most recent comparable contract is Kyler Murray’s, which included more than $100 million fully guaranteed.
That kind of money is tough to walk away from, as is the sport itself when you’ve played it pretty much all your life. (See Exhibit A: Thomas Brady.)
I didn’t play organized football, so I asked my nephew for some insight into how tough it is to put football in your rearview mirror when it’s been such a major part of your life.
My nephew, JT Los Banos, won a state championship with ‘Iolani in 2012, making three interceptions — including the game-clincher — in the 36-33 win over Lahainaluna in the Division II final. He went on to play at Cal Poly for a year before walking away to focus on his education. He loved football.
JT admits that he spent his first year away from football considering going back, even though college football practices left him with recurring headaches and fatigue like he’d never experienced playing in high school. His health was “dramatically different” after he stopped playing. He was able to enjoy learning more and has since graduated with a degree in architectural engineering and has a career he enjoys.
In Hawaii, we view all kids as our own. We root hard for the teams we send — seemingly annually — to the Little League World Series. The local stations show as many of Tagovailoa’s and Marcus Mariota’s games as they can, knowing we will watch. So Tua’s not my kid, but I want what’s best for him. As much as I enjoy watching him play, I want him to have a great life.
I was happy when JT decided to hang up his cleats. When young NFL players such as Colts QB Andrew Luck and 49ers linebacker Chris Borland decided to retire before their bodies suffered long-term injury, I was happy for them.
Tua’s decision is his own to make. If he decides to walk away to focus on having a fulfilling life with his family, I’ll be happy for him too.