Forecasts of a brisk recovery for Hawaii’s Japanese tourism market seem to have been premature.

That sector has recovered only 18% from its pre-pandemic levels, according to some disappointing statistics that state tourism authorities released this week. Those who had made sunnier projections likely had not expected COVID-19 concerns to persist, or that inflation would be such a traveler’s worry.

Could a rush of visitors eager to see Mauna Loa’s eruption offset that? Not even close, but it can’t hurt.