Following a curious period of stopping, pausing and restarting, Kilauea Volcano has become utterly regular, having now erupted 24 hours a day within Halemaumau Crater for more than a month and a half.
There are no signs of stopping.
“It could go on for quite some time,” said Ken Hon, scientist in charge at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.
While the volcano is unpredictable and “it could slow down and stop tomorrow,” Hon said that for now all of the signs point to the seven-month eruption forging ahead with the Halemaumau lava lake continuing to grow.
How long this will go on is anybody’s guess. However, if the volcano’s behavior in the 1800s is any guide, it could actually last for decades.
Hon said that during the 1800s a lava lake practically was a permanent fixture at the summit with only a few major periods of interruption.
Since the Sept. 29 beginning of the current eruption, the crater floor has risen
325 feet. The volume of lava spewed from the volcano has so far exceeded 18 billion gallons, and the lava lake has filled in 1,000 feet of the collapsed crater that marked the beginning of the disastrous 2018 Lower Puna eruption.
A sulfur dioxide emission rate of 1,984 tons per day was measured Thursday.
The current eruption has taken a few twists and turns, keeping scientists guessing about what’s coming next.
“It’s an exciting time for volcano watchers,” said Ken Rubin, University of Hawaii professor of earth sciences.
After a showy beginning, the eruption backed off enough to where some scientists suggested that it might mirror the last eruption, which started Dec. 20, 2020. That one slowly depressurized and tapered off before finally stopping after five months.
Like the last eruption, the current one appeared to be staying entirely within the crater.
But starting in November the volcano launched into a series of temporary pauses. For four months the eruption experienced about 20 such pauses, each lasting from about one to three days, plus there was a bunch of smaller ones.
The stop-start pattern, which averaged as much
as two per week in January and February, was accompanied by ground deflation and inflation.
Something either was temporarily blocking the chamber feeding the lava lake, or some force deep in the earth was slowing the pulse of the flow, scientists suggested at the time.
But then in mid-March the pauses just stopped, and the lava production continued unabated at an average pace of about 5 cubic yards per second. The pattern of ground deflation and inflation continued even though the pauses weren’t happening anymore.
Hon said it seems like Kilauea is trying to reestablish its plumbing system following the prodigious 2018 Lower Puna eruption, which threw out about 10 years of stored magma during its short three-month life span.
“For now it is reestablishing its conduits in the summit area,” he said.
Rubin said it’s exciting to think what will come next.
The volcano in 2018
experienced dramatic changes in the week the eruption started in early May, he said. The lava lake filled up rapidly and overflowed its banks onto the caldera floor. Then a couple days later, there was a big south flank earthquake, and then smaller shallow earthquakes migrated down-rift.
The magnitude of the changes now being observed is a lot smaller, Rubin said.
“It’s interesting to watch the pulse of the volcano,”
he said, “because although most of it is predictable or understandable by us after the fact, it doesn’t mean we’re able to fully explain every aspect that’s happening there in real time.”
While Kilauea is now erupting nonstop, that doesn’t necessarily mean public viewing of the show is always optimal, said Jody Anastasio, acting public information officer for Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park.
She said some nights
are more spectacular than others, depending on how active the vents are or what’s going on with the weather.
For the best viewing, Anastasio said to go to the park’s website at nps.gov/havo and check out the crater web cam to see how much activity there is. Additionally, read the Kilauea updates that are issued each morning on the HVO website at usgs.gov/
volcanoes/kilauea.
The park website also lists the best eruption-viewing spots and offers tips for the best viewing experience, including this suggestion: Avoid arriving between
4 and 8 p.m., and come at an unconventional time, such as 4 a.m. or after 8 p.m.
“There are more visitors, and the active volcano is one of the reasons,” she said.