Whether it’s COVID- 19, tainted drinking water tied to the Navy’s Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility or “over- tourism,” nowadays we’re all focused on current events.
It’s only natural. However, to create good policy for our state, we need to regularly examine key metrics and develop plans to mitigate adverse outcomes. What should we be thinking about?
Planning is still an interest for former Honolulu Community College Chancellor Mike Rota. As an administrator and educator, Mike had a number of responsibilities over his career, which spanned 40-plus years. The one he counts as the most rewarding was representing the University of Hawaii system on the state Workforce Development Council.
In this capacity he focused like a laser beam on demographic and educational outcomes data to develop academic policy that would prepare a future workforce.
Mike still examines the numbers, and I had a chance to speak with him recently to take stock of important trends.
Question: What population trends concern you the most?
Answer: We are in the fourth year of a decline in our total civilian population, despite significant growth in those age 65 and older. The data shows significant declines in residents ages 18 to 24 as well as those ages 45 to 64. These two groups are critical components in our economy; the former are the potential new entrants to the workforce, while the latter typically have the greatest experience, training and education.
Q: Oahu is pretty crowded. Could fewer people be a good thing?
A: There are consequences to the population declines. Not only are you left with a smaller, less experienced workforce, but there’s less potential economic activity. That means reduced tax collections and fewer people with specific competences. For example, we’re seeing fewer skilled health care workers, which is increasingly important given our aging population. We can anticipate similar shortages in most technical fields critical to a modern economy. On top of this, we’re a net exporter of the best and brightest young people, often private school grads, between the ages of 18 to 24.
Q: What can we do about the brain drain?
A: Other states with similar trends have initiated significant scholarship programs for students who attend their public higher education institutions to slow that loss of talent; we are not yet one of those states. We also should encourage more out-of-state students to enroll in our public colleges and universities. In addition to bringing new money into Hawaii, they are the cheapest population to house and are of source of creative energy.
Q: You’ve stated, “The major barrier to growing and sustaining a workforce is housing costs.” Can you flesh that out?
A: The high cost of housing is one of the biggest workforce issues we face. As a 2013 UHERO study pointed out, “even in today’s environment of relatively low interest rates, the median family income would not be able to afford the median-priced home.” This is more likely true today than it was in 2013 given the decline in our per capita personal income, and is likely the biggest factor in the high number of people ages 45 to 64 leaving the state.
Q: Some in the Legislature have supported the so-called Singapore Model where at-cost leasehold condos could be sold on state land. Can you comment on that?
A: I don’t think we fully understand the historical connection between subsidized worker housing and the functioning of the Hawaii economy. The demise of plantation housing resulted in hundreds of households either being sustained in dilapidated, substandard ex-plantation homes or pushed into the private real estate market without a corresponding growth in new housing. This has created a heated real estate market, leaving a big portion of Hawaii’s population with diminished options.
I suggest we look elsewhere for possible models, such as the approach taken in Singapore, a constrained island community like Hawaii. A Feb. 22 Honolulu Star-Advertiser story (“Proposal for Hawaii to build and sell leasehold condos judged unfeasible”) indicated that using ceded land created future ownership problems, thus making a self-sustaining model impossible. Yes, ceded land issues can’t be ignored, but there are other public-land options available. I don’t see a solution without significant public investment. It will be damaging to our economic future if a worker housing solution is discarded because it doesn’t pay for itself, and shortsighted given the size of the state’s current surplus.
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Rob Kay, a Honolulu-based writer, covers technology and sustainability for “Tech View” and is the creator of fijiguide.com. He can be reached at Robertfredkay@gmail.com.
