The lifting of coronavirus restrictions today in Japan won’t dramatically increase Japanese visitors to Hawaii, but the timing bodes well for a fall recovery of the state’s top international market.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced last week that Japan’s pandemic-related rules would be repealed in 18 prefectures, including the Tokyo area.

Although the easing of restrictions doesn’t pertain to international travel, Hawaii Tourism Japan Managing Director Eric Takahata said it is expected to build consumer confidence in Japan. He said the increased positivity will first bolster Japan’s own domestic travel and then spark greater demand for popular far-off destinations like Hawaii.

Takahata and others who represent the Japan tourism market in Hawaii say they expect to see a slight uptick in travel from Japan to Hawaii this spring, particularly during Golden Week, a period where national holidays stack up.

Golden Week this year starts April 29, or Showa Day, which falls on a Friday. The timing is favorable because Japanese travelers who take the following Monday off from work, May 2, will have a total of seven days off. There are national holidays on May 3-5 marking Constitution Day, Green Day and Children’s Day.

“By June we should be closer to pre-pandemic levels but not at pre-pandemic levels,” Takahata said. “Our stakeholders are telling us that by fall, probably around October, we should be at pre- pandemic levels.”

He said Japan’s decision to further ease restrictions is a “big step” for the historically conservative country and sends a strong signal to Japanese residents that they can start getting back to normal life, including travel.

The hope is that Kishida’s messaging will cautiously expand consumer activity to help Japan’s badly hurt economy get back on track. His announcement came as daily COVID-19 cases have steadily declined in Japan in recent weeks after surging to new highs exceeding 100,000 in early February. New cases have fallen by about half.

“This will be a transitional period so that we can return to our normal daily lives as much as possible by taking maximum precautions,” Kishida said last week during a news conference.

Japan hasn’t opened its border to foreign tourists yet. But the lifting of restrictions will allow more domestic travel as well as parties and larger gatherings for people with vaccination records and negative COVID-­ 19 tests, Kishida said.

While the U.S. travel market to Hawaii started the year close to pre-pandemic levels, travelers from Japan were still nearly 98% below 2019 and 2020 numbers.

Only 2,850 visitors from Japan were counted in January, which was better than the 1,165 who came to Hawaii in 2021 but significantly lower than the 117,995 Japanese visitors who came in January 2020 and the 120,418 who arrived in January 2019.

Takahata said that since March 1, Japanese residents have been able to get exempted from Japan’s quarantine if they are boosted and can show proof of a negative result on a COVID-19 PCR test taken within 72 hours of their return home.

“That didn’t open the floodgates. Only about 31% of Japanese residents are boosted, and, secondly, Japan hasn’t taken down its travel advisory for the U.S., which is at a Level 3, which stands for reconsider travel,” he said. “Until Japan moves its travel advisory to a Level 1, which advises exercising normal precautions, package tours can’t operate.”

Dave Erdman, founder, CEO and president of PacRim Marketing Group Inc. & PRTech, Vector Group Cos.-USA/Japan/Asia-Pacific, said, “Japan has announced steady progress to roll out its own approved vaccines in summer, which could help to increase those who are unvaccinated or hesitant to get vaccinated, or for young children.”

Takahata said that as more Japanese residents get boosted, the percentage of travelers who are coming to Hawaii on their own will increase.

Further improvements are expected once the Japanese government upgrades its U.S. travel advisory, which will allow package tour operators to resume operations in Hawaii, he said.

Erdman said another impediment to progress is that Japan still has a cap of 7,000 inbound travelers per day. While the cap is expected to increase to 10,000 soon, he said there is a backlog of students and business people with visas or waiting for visas to enter Japan.

“The cap impacts total seats available into Japan, also potentially impacting options for returning residents on leisure trips,” Erdman said.

Given current conditions, Erdman said he sees meaningful recovery of Japan visitors to Hawaii by late summer and fall, and strong demand by the 2022-2023 holiday period.

“But we must prepare now, as we could also be surprised and get a big bump in travelers like the U.S. market last year,” he said. “Hawaii will have to have the right inventory available so Japanese know they need to start now to make advance reservations for hotels on any island.”

Optimism is building in Hawaii as hard-hit Japanese travel companies see Japan moving closer to normalcy.

JTB Hawaii, which has served travelers from Japan in Hawaii since 1964, suffered devastating pandemic losses that prompted the company to look for ways to diversify.

“We used to handle 3,000 people every day, and that went down to zero. It hit us big time,” said Kenji Takahashi, general manager of Travel Plaza Transportation, a subsidiary of JTB Hawaii. “We tried to look for another source of income.”

In the fall JTB Hawaii partnered with Zest Hawaii Inc., an event company that connects Japan and Hawaii, to bring Japan’s Ghost Bus to Oahu, the attraction’s first venue outside of Japan.

Zest Hawaii’s Kei Segawa said the pandemic had a 100% negative impact on the event company’s business, too.

“Everybody started looking for new events, especially something that would appeal to the U.S. market,” Segawa said.

JTB Hawaii’s decision to turn one of its empty motor coaches into a haunted house on wheels and get some employees back to work proved so successful that the Ghost Bus now has two locations.

Weekdays, it’s parked in front of the Waikiki Beach Marriott and on weekends it’s giving heart-thumping thrills at the Ka Makana Ali‘i mall in Kapolei.

Guests age 8 years and older may take the 15-minute ride. Tickets can be purchased online at ghostbus hawaii.com for $15, or $13 with a kamaaina discount.

Takahashi said the Ghost Bus is on an extended run through May 1 but that it could continue running even after the Japanese visitors return in larger numbers to Hawaii.

Segawa said Ghost Bus was so successful that Zest Hawaii is working on other partnership opportunities, especially as arrivals from Japan increase.

In many ways the Ghost Bus, which features zombies and horrifying transformations, symbolizes what happened to Japan during the pandemic. There was a foreboding sense of fear that’s given way to hope.

And starting today, Takahashi said, JTB Hawaii will open its hotel lounges, which were closed early in the pandemic.

“It’s a sign that things are coming back to normal,” he said.

Erdman said he is seeing pickup from travelers coming to Hawaii on their own from Japan as well as from South Korea, where the government also is easing COVID-19 travel restrictions.

A far smaller percentage of South Korean travelers came to Hawaii in 2019 compared with the more than 1.5 million who came from Japan. Still, the market isn’t insignificant. Hawaii Tourism Authority reported that 225,479 visitors from South Korea came to Hawaii in 2019.

Erdman said that starting today, vaccinated travelers who completed their COVID-­ 19 vaccination in Korea or those who already registered their overseas vaccination history at a Korean public health center will be eligible for quarantine exemption.

On April 1, vaccinated travelers who completed their vaccination overseas and register their vaccination history through the Quarantine COVID19 Defense (Q-Code) system before traveling to Korea will be eligible for quarantine exemption, he said.

“In the last two weeks our bookings (from visitors from Japan and South Korea) to partner hotels has increased substantially; of course, the base was very low, but the trend is positive,” Erdman said.

He said there are bookings for the end of March, April, Golden Week, summer and early fall, and some travelers are booking now for the end-of-year holiday season.

According to Erdman, the ending of the quasi- emergency state in Japan “is positive and helps people to feel they can venture out and begin to enjoy life more — and … think about a Hawaii vacation.”

Nina Lee, PacRim Marketing & PRTech Korea digital marketing specialist, said, “Just like Japanese, the Korean people are also tired of being in COVID situation, and they just want to get out and start to enjoy life again.”

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The Associated Press contributed to this story.