This week, two years after Hawaii saw its first COVID-19 case, triggering crushing lockdowns and bringing the economy to a standstill, the state is finally on the road to a rebound.
No, COVID-19 has not vanished, so public-health vigilance remains crucial. But mandates restricting activities are mostly gone — and economic activity needs to grow robustly for the overall well-being of Hawaii. In large part, that means tourism, and we must be ready for a smart reset.
A new study by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) predicts that arrivals will surpass last summer’s peak by the second quarter, and by year’s end, reach 90% of the pre-COVID-19 level.
“Bookings by U.S. visitors have now bounced back to their pre-pandemic pace,” UHERO said, “although bookings by Asian visitors remain essentially zero.”
Indeed, current COVID-19 spikes in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong are fueling uncertainty, as is the desperate situation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which could raise costs globally and spread war concerns.
Overall, though, even despite relatively few travelers from Asia over the past year, Hawaii is seen as a safe and steady destination — and that stands to continue. UHERO predicts that Hawaii should see 8.746 million visitors this year, 9.455 million in 2023, and 9.615 million in 2024. The state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, in its forecast last week, was even more bullish, forecasting 9 million visitors this year, 9.7 million in 2023, 10.1 million in 2024, and 10.4 million in 2025, which would match the 2019 record year, just before COVID-19 hit.
Hawaii’s forced tourism lull put needed focus on how to channel the flood when it returns — for both carrying-capacity reasons and to address growing resident resentment. Now is the time to forge policies for tourism sustainability and launch them into practice. The Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA), for instance, has adopted sustainability plans for each of the islands, part of a multiyear strategy for building back with “regenerative tourism.” It’s about balancing the economics of tourism with the well-being of Hawaii’s communities and natural resources, via enlightened management efforts, and improving visitor facilities and infrastructure with local communities also in mind.
Upkeep of our natural assets is paramount, whether it be maintenance of hiking trails, minimizing pollution of coastal waters or reducing traffic at highly popular areas. Reservation models have seen success at Haena State Park on Kauai, Haleakala summit on Maui and Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve in East Oahu.
Toward the goal of managing visitors, the state Legislature is considering a raft of bills. Some bills have died without a hearing, but several are advancing, as they should, including:
>> Senate Bill 1065, which would codify “best practice destination management,” a holistic approach to ensure that tourism adds value to the economy, social fabric and ecology of communities — as well as “regenerative tourism” to reduce the harm associated with tourism and help restore natural environments. Those responsibilities would fall to HTA, which would get appropriate funding to carry out destination management action plans for each island.
>> Senate Bill 3192, to create a visitor impact fee program within the state Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) to collect a fee from visitors visiting a state-owned natural area — be it a park, beach, forest, hiking trail or other — for the purpose of protecting and managing Hawaii’s natural resources.
>> Senate Bill 3330, requiring the DLNR to create the Pupukea Marine Life Conservation District carrying-capacity pilot program for that popular North Shore area.
COVID-19 appears to be waning, finally, and with Hawaii’s Safe Travels restrictions ending after March 25, a robust recovery is forecast, and welcome. But with resilience comes responsibility — and it’s about quality, not sheer quantity. What’s good for Hawaii’s environment and residents truly lays the symbiotic groundwork for its tourism industry.
