Safe Travels Hawaii, one of the most distinctive elements of the state’s fight against COVID-19, may be coming to the end of its natural life, when the law of diminishing returns begins to apply.
The pandemic is not over, but the time has come to rethink the state’s approach to it, and to begin making some of the management of it a more private, individual matter.
When the state’s COVID-19 screening program was launched in October 2020, it provided some insulation from the virus, in the days before anyone had access to the vaccine. Those who could present a negative test could escape a quarantine upon arrival. This enabled tourism, basically shuttered since the start of the pandemic, to resume, though at a lower level.
A lot has changed. Proof of vaccination became another route to get a quarantine waiver, and as the vaccine distribution advanced, this helped to accelerate the visitor industry. Then the delta and omicron variants brought new surges to complicate recovery; omicron especially was able to break through even among those who had received a booster shot.
As case counts finally began to wane, Gov. David Ige earlier this month decided that the improving state of the pandemic did not warrant raising the guardrails further, so did not add a vaccine booster to the requirements for a quarantine waiver.
This was a justifiable call, given the economic pressures on the visitor industry and the economy as a whole, to hold off on raising the bar just while case counts are waning.
Assuming the omicron wave continues to ebb, March 25 becomes a logical point at which to transition back to a normal travel routine. There are several reasons for this.
>> There is a public cost to operating Safe Travels, and with a multitude of other pandemic impacts that still will require resources, it’s reasonable to consider better ways to spend the money.
School needs come to mind, as do supports for adequate COVID-19 testing, masks and other community reinforcements. This includes outreach for vaccines and boosters that must remain at the center of the public-health mission.
Ige’s supplemental budget request this legislative session includes $61.8 million for Safe Travels, including costs for the Hawaii National Guard. But the National Guard support is due to end in March, Lt. Gov. Josh Green said last week, prompting the current discussion on the future of Safe Travels. Ige has said federal American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) funds can still be drawn through 2024, but again, that money could have other, better purposes.
>> Especially without a booster requirement, the effectiveness of Safe Travels in weeding out infections has declined. The change in cost-effectiveness has to be considered a factor.
>> Further, the tourist traffic has never been the primary cause of the community spread of the virus. Health officials have maintained that the overwhelming majority of infections are traced to exposure within localized social interactions.
This fact, as well as the rising tally of mainland states easing restrictions, is already raising other local issues on the radar screen. Mayor Rick Blangiardi on Thursday indicated that Safe Access Oahu, the mandate for vaccines or tests to enter restaurants, bars and gyms, also may go when the city’s emergency order expires March 5.
It will be necessary to recheck the metrics of the pandemic before that decision is made, and to assess the full impact on businesses. Hospitalizations are dropping rapidly, but the risk of exposure to the virus is still high, which could deter customers in the near term.
Still, there is an undeniable impulse, playing out across the country, to turn the page on COVID-19, at least moving to a new chapter. For example, California has just issued its “SMARTER Plan,” the acronym a stand-in for six key components: shots, masks, awareness, readiness, testing, education and “Rx” — a reference to improving treatments.
These same factors should be part of Hawaii’s push, although Hawaii has its own characteristics. Safe Travels has been one of those, unique in the nation and a model for the federal screening of international travel, which at least for now will remain.
Widespread acceptance of indoor masking is another attribute, and Hawaii is the last to have a statewide mandate. We need at least this minimally invasive tool for some time to help slow the spread.
Green in an interview last week said that among his chief concerns is the proportion of the eligible population that has not received full vaccination with a booster — about 400,000 people in all.
But there was cause to be upbeat about Friday’s active cases — down 85.3% from peak. And COVID-19 cases in the hospitals, including those hospitalized for other reasons, numbered 117, he said, 70.3% off peak.
Persisting pandemic uncertainties — what will the next variants bring? — likely will mean a viral uptick that people must find ways to control. As guardrails drop, Hawaii will face a hold-your-breath moment, before we all can exhale.
