On Feb. 1, Myanmar (or Burma) marked the year anniversary of a military coup that, in the words of historian Thant Myint-U, “opened the door to a different, almost certainly darker future.”
The coup followed an election overwhelmingly won by the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by icon Aung San Suu Kyi. Having failed at the democracy game, the armed forces, known locally as the Tatmadaw, fell back on past tactics. Junta leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing insisted there had been widespread election fraud, arrested the NLD leaders, and declared a state of emergency.
He may have thought that the people and outside world would simply accept the new course, but the military brass was clearly out of touch. After weeks of street protests, during which hundreds of protesters were killed and thousands arrested, the military is now contending with “silent” protests in the cities and an unprecedented, spreading rebellion countrywide.
The resistance created a National Unity Government, or NUG, that encourages armed as well as passive resistance. The military’s response has been to double down on suppression, with bombings, massacres, burning of villages, and other human rights abuses.
Externally, the junta is isolated. Most foreign governments and multinational organizations like the U.N. and ASEAN do not recognize it. Even countries that do, like China, give only de facto recognition. Many western governments have implemented sanctions and large companies are leaving the country.
The NUG enjoys international sympathy and support from overseas Burmese and pro-democracy governments and groups, but also lacks formal recognition. It promises a future that foresees a federal structure, full human rights, and public participation for minorities — including the Muslim Rohingya, long a target of discrimination and repression.
It is difficult is discern a peaceful way out. Neither side is disposed toward dialogue and compromise. The military has designated the NLD as a terrorist organization and convicted Aung San Suu Kyi on trumped-up charges to keep her in detention and out of politics forever. The NUG has formed a People’s Defense Force and refuses discussions until political prisoners are released, especially given the military’s history of using dialogue and vague promises of a future democracy as delaying tactics.
Many regard compromise as out of the question since the will of the people had already been expressed in a legitimate election.
Unlike earlier military crackdowns, this time the people had experienced a real taste of an alternative future. Before the coup, external sanctions had been reduced or eliminated, foreign investment and tourism boomed, aid and scholarships expanded, and people enthusiastically participated in democratic elections. Outside institutions, such as the East-West Center in Hawaii, had expanded scholarships and in-country programming, including an international media conference in 2014 that brought bringing several hundred journalists to Myanmar to demonstrate the value of a free media first-hand.
As a consequence of the coup and pandemic, Myanmar lost an estimated 1.6 million jobs and 20% of its gross national product last year. Poverty has soared and the health care system is in crisis.
While the future will ultimately be determined by the people of Myanmar, the outside world should neither forget nor protest in silence. We should continue to show solidarity the aspirations of the people and demand that the junta leaders reverse their destructive course.
Miemie Winn Byrd and Charles E. Morrison are adjunct fellows at the East-West Center; Karen Knudsen is the center’s former director of external affairs.
