Hawaii residents have had two years of reshaping their lives to the shifting contours of COVID-19.
Here, although immunity levels are still not where they need to be, vaccinations have helped. Most people have become accustomed to at least some of the changes, accepting the masking and distancing that have been the minimum steps to take for avoiding infection.
Some of the fixes, such as adaptations made to workplace settings and routines, even have been implemented on a long-term basis.
But many people are about to hit a wall. Is anything going to feel normal, ever again?
The conversation has begun — loudly, in many quarters — about how we are all to live with this virus, because in one form or another, it’s certain to be out there for the foreseeable future. Hawaii’s own restrictions, from the Safe Travels program to guardrails for entering some venues, are likely to stick around for some time.
However, researchers globally have been warily studying the epidemiological landscape and, with the most cautious optimism, have seen reason to hope.
The somewhat milder effects of the current omicron wave have made this winter somewhat easier nationally. Although hospitals in Hawaii are still engaged in a struggle with an overload of cases, the infection counts have come down after the surge, with the positivity rate statewide nearing 10%.
A new phase of dealing with the disease seems to be approaching. But how ready are we to move ahead with it? Not quite ready, say the experts.
A global tracking app called the COVID Symptom Study (covid.joinzoe.com), launched by universities and hospitals in the U.K. that then partnered with U.S., has enabled an engagement with the general public throughout the pandemic.
On Thursday, this took the form of a webinar, “Omicron: What does it mean for the future of COVID?” (808ne.ws/webinar).
Wendy Barclay, Imperial College head of infectious diseases, said that despite the immunity achieved so far, there is a lot of uncertainty over where the virus will trend next. There is a lot of data to back her up, too. Recently the virus was discovered being carried in animals, including deer, where it could hibernate and reemerge.
If the next variant is fairly benign, though, that would be an encouraging pattern.
“If we continue to see this trend in downward severity after one or two more variants, I will feel a lot more comfortable saying yes, let’s relax,” Barclay said.
What else are we looking for, before we might exhale?
Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, has been speaking publicly about what he sees as the milestones American society still must reach:
>> The overall background immunity should be increased. Getting more of the vaccine-hesitant to take the shot would help, but raising the rate of the vaccinated who have received a booster would be the easier lift. They are more persuadable.
Hawaii still has a way to go on this front. The going is likely to be a bit rough until both booster rates and youth vaccinations increase. On Friday, 56.3% of the eligible population had been boosted. As for the kids, the youngest children are still waiting for a vaccine, and those ages 5-11 are only 30.4% complete with shots.
>> Testing will have to be more routine, with test kits affordable and more available. In particular, this will enable a less disruptive way of managing infections in schools.
With more testing, students positive for the virus would be sent home to isolate, while those around them who continue to test negative can stay for in-person learning. Less school disruption also means less chaos for their working parents, saving them from missing work or making child-care arrangements on the fly.
>> New medication in pill form must be more available, to ease treatment for those who get infected.
>> Again, the virus itself has to cooperate. If the next variant turns out to be worse, all bets are off.
Until fortunes improve a bit more, then, Gov. David Ige would be right to keep Safe Travels Hawaii in place, and other protective measures such as Safe Access Oahu protocols would be prudent to have as well.
Just as important: As sick as we all are wearing masks indoors, we would be truly sicker without them. Proper masking with higher- quality face coverings that fit well remain important mitigations to shave off a measure of risk in challenging situations.
Finally, people do need to make an attitude shift, taking some responsibility for their health and that of those around them. Everyone feels drawn to resume some activities they’ve put off until now, and it will be possible to do so before long.
But there needs to be some personal risk assessment and questions to ask oneself. Is this party, or that gathering, worth it to me right now? How can I minimize the risk?
That thought process is part of the road to the new normal, and now is not too soon to start.