State Department of Health Director Dr. Elizabeth Char on Friday said it is far too soon to declare a plateau in the number of COVID-19 cases from the omicron surge in Hawaii.
The weekly average of new cases per day this week is higher compared with last week, she pointed out, and hospitalization numbers continue to climb.
“I think it’s a bit early to call that,” she said during an appearance on the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s “Spotlight Hawaii” livestream program. “If we look at the trend over the past week, it is still increasing. The slope that almost every state has seen is a near- vertical rise in the epicurves. That may be slowing down a little bit, but certainly we’re still on an upswing.”
On Friday, DOH reported 4,473 new infections statewide and two new virus- related deaths — one each on Hawaii island and Kauai. Since the start of the pandemic nearly two years ago, Hawaii has seen 195,151 COVID-19 cases and 1,137 deaths.
The weekly average of new cases on Friday — 4,587 — was up from 3,858 the previous Friday. The numbers are likely higher, Char said, because people taking home tests do not report positives to DOH.
As previously reported, the Health Department has temporarily paused reporting the positivity rate — the percentage of people testing positive — as of Sunday because the state has been overwhelmed by the volume of test results it is trying to process.
Char said she expects the agency to resume posting positivity rates again in the next week or so.
Hospitalization numbers are also “very concerning,” she said, and are closing in on the peak during the delta variant surge, with a growing number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care.
On Friday the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency listed 395 patients with COVID-19 in hospitals — a 62% jump from two weeks ago. Forty-five of those patients were in intensive care and 32 on ventilators.
“The good thing is that the percentage of people that end up in the hospital with omicron is a lot lower than it was for delta,” Char said. “That being said, (with) just the sheer numbers, the hospitals are very, very full.”
The health director warned people not to take a gamble with omicron or assume it is “more mild” without understanding the full scope of the disease. There are long-term risks that remain unknown, she said, and some people could get sick enough to land in the hospital.
“To say just go ahead and get sick, I don’t think that’s a really good idea right now,” Char said.
The Hawaii Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group forecasts hospitalizations on Oahu will peak at 400 to 600 at the end of the month but could range even higher in the worst-case scenario.
Whether the state has curbed or is still experiencing a surge remains unclear, HiPAM said, due to the loss of key data points such as the positivity rate. Not having this data at this crucial stage of the surge greatly hampers forecasting attempts, HiPAM said.
Although its models had estimated the state to be at or near a peak of daily cases, the backlog of daily cases reported could also mean they are off from reality.
Human behavior is the biggest wild card of all, HiPAM said, and can stretch out the curve and delay the peak.
Char said residents should up their masking game with well-fitting and higher-quality filtration masks such as KN95s or KF94s, and avoid mingling in crowds during the omicron surge.
She urged all eligible to get their boosters.
“We really, really want people to go out and get your booster shot,” Char said. “It makes a tremendous difference with omicron. … The booster shots are going to give you a great rise in neutralizing antibodies as well as protect you on a whole other level.”
Boosters can also help prevent the spread of the coronavirus, she said, because the peak viral load in those who are boosted appears to be lower than for those who are unvaccinated. They also shorten the duration of time one is contagious.
On Friday three U.S. studies offered more evidence that those who are vaccinated and boosted have higher protection against omicron.
As of Friday, DOH reported 75.5% of the state’s population had completed the initial vaccine series, with 31.4% boosted.
Omicron has also eclipsed delta, according to the state’s latest variant report, and now accounts for more than 96% of sequenced specimens collected in the state.
