It was a rocky year for taking the decennial national Census, and for most other government functions, in 2020. To name one factor, the pandemic curbed the capability to gather information in person from individual households, which meant a fair number of people may have been missed for the count.
The first major data download from the Census has occurred, showing that the state population grew by 7%. This, and the fact that Honolulu hit the 1 million population mark at last, created some interest. While analysis is still ongoing, the surprises so far show Oahu growing slightly faster and the neighbor islands more slowly than expected.
But it’s this cloud over the accuracy of the Census for Hawaii that demands attention from policy makers and the general public.
The fact is, the state can’t be sure which groups here are undercounted, or by how much. And those numbers will come into play fairly promptly, affecting federal funding outlays for Medicaid and numerous other safety-net programs.
Eugene Tian, chief state economist with the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, said that the U.S. Census Bureau is conducting surveys of households that were counted in 2010 but did not report in for 2020. They then will see what adjustment might be made in certain population sizes, he said, to guide some future government work.
More immediately, though, the official Census is done. That data collection will remain as-is for two critical purposes: the allocation of federal funds for specific public needs, and the drawing of new voting-district maps.
First, about the political maps: The state Reapportionment Commission already has formed permitted interaction groups that will meet privately to begin the work of redrawing those district boundaries, said Mark Mugiishi, commission chairman.
The proposed plans are due Jan. 8, 2022, with the final plans to be filed with the state Office of Elections by Feb. 27. Mugiishi said the draft maps will be presented online, using a platform allows the public to see what’s presented and to submit their own drafts.
That’s encouraging. It’s key that this process remain as transparent as possible. The population change is not expected to alter Hawaii’s congressional districts, but on the local level, voters will want to see how their communities are divided, which would affect who can represent them in the Legislature.
The larger issue may be the funding repercussions of the Census.
This Census was the first in which, in addition to the surveys by mail or over the phone, U.S. households were able to respond by completing the form online. That additional option was helpful, given the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, but the bureau historically has needed to follow up with a door-to-door survey to reach those who do not self-report.
And for part of last year the bureau suspended in-person interviews, conducting follow-up by phone instead. This certainly missed some portion of the population that, due to language barriers or other issues, are hard to reach by remote means.
How much this affected Hawaii’s count is unclear, but, Tian said, the state did lag nationally in the self-response rate for 2020 and behind its own rate from the 2010 Census. For example, 63.1% of households statewide responded without follow-up this time, a full percentage point behind 2010. The decline was 2% for Oahu and 3% for Hawaii county.
That’s concerning, and it signals possible shortfalls, with population estimates not reflecting true needs. And that’s something social-service agencies and lawmakers will need to track carefully.
