Some pandemic recovery forecasts are subject to frequent redrafting and revisions. But while the ongoing public health threat leaves us with some shaky uncertainties about the path forward, two reports released this month by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) show cause for optimism — and the way forward.

UHERO’s latest economic forecast was markedly more positive than predictions made just months earlier because of enormous federal stimulus receipts, accelerated COVID-19 vaccine deliveries and rising visitor arrival counts. And a more recent report, on the economic impact of the UH system, made the case that the state’s investment in higher education generates high returns and provides a foundation for future growth.

Even so, the pandemic has taken a toll on Hawaii’s students, especially high school students struggling to graduate. Budget cuts will force UH to make hard choices, but, as the UHERO report demonstrated, those choices cannot be at the expense of current and future students.

Among the findings in the report, which updates a 2013 study on the system’s economic impact (both direct and indirect): For every dollar of state funding the UH receives, another $3 is generated through research grants and from student spending.

“We’re a huge economic sector,” said UH President David Lassner, speaking Monday on the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s Spotlight Hawaii webcast. He pointed out that in terms of total output, UH represents about 3% of the state’s economy, putting it ahead of agriculture and utilities.

Further, Lassner said, “We prepare people to solve the problems that Hawaii’s facing now and in the future; we contribute to economy on every single island; and we contribute to the earning potential of every student … who earns a degree from us.”

The report found that the holder of a UH associate’s degree on average makes $300,000 more in his or her lifetime over a high school classmate who never went to college. The bachelor’s degree-holder who lives here makes $1.5 million more; and the gap bumps up to $2.87 million for a postgraduate degree.

When potential career earnings are bundled with non-monetary higher ed benefits — college grads are more likely to be civically engaged and healthier than other groups — it’s indisputable that for the post-pandemic recovery, well-educated students continue to be a vitally important investment in Hawaii’s future.

On that score, though, it’s concerning that, due to an especially challenging school year, more than 1 in 4 public high school seniors a couple of months ago were considered off track and in danger of not graduating. In response, it’s heartening that an array of summer school programs targeting struggling students is in the works.

Also helping with the transition to higher ed opportunities is a program called “Next Steps to Your Future.” Launched through a group led by the nonprofit Hawaii P-20 Partnerships for Education, it connects thousands of students with free summer career exploration courses at community colleges and access to academic counselors for one-on-one support. Participants have an opportunity to apply for scholarships funded by the program’s supporters.

It’s unclear what effect state funding cuts slated for the next two years will have on the system, with the flagship Manoa campus looking at the deepest slash, 13.8%, compared to 2.8% for community colleges. But what seems abundantly clear is that well-targeted spending by UH can fuel the engine of economic growth and potential diversification — stimulating the local economy with jobs, research and skilled workers.