Of all the upheavals the coronavirus crisis has brought worldwide, one that may have the most lasting impact is the fundamental change in how and where people live and work. In many cases, the boundaries separating workplace from home space have faded, or disappeared altogether.
And now, with the end of the global pandemic at least visible on the horizon, what’s also on the viewscreen is a reshaping of Honolulu’s communities, with the prospect of converting some of the underutilized office space into desperately needed affordable housing.
This will be a long transition, to be sure, but one that must be led by policymakers empowered to put Hawaii’s limited property capacity to its best use.
The result of so many staffers being dispatched to isolate from the deadly virus by working online taught them, and their employers, that a lot of routine business could be done easily from home.
That is sure to accelerate one of commercial real estate’s downward trends, with struggling businesses discovering that their overhead expenses for lease rent could be pared down or, in select cases, eliminated.
And that simply compounds what’s been a devastating decline in commercial real estate. According to a report released on Thursday by the real estate firm Colliers International, the closure of many retail businesses added 329,000 square feet more vacant space since the start of 2021.
This tripled the vacant 107,586 square feet added to the retail inventory in all of 2020. And the wave of closures is not expected to crest until later this year.
While indicators point to an ultimate revamping of the urban core, the more immediate future is less clear.
Stephany Sofos, a veteran in the real-estate and property-management fields here, said many property owners are working to negotiate new leases to keep tenants in place, trying to maintain established property uses.
In an overview of the employment landscape the Honolulu Star-Advertiser published last week, some companies’ executives have found that remote working played out surprisingly well for them.
Now that vaccinations have signaled the approach of the post-pandemic days, some companies are summoning home-based staffers back to headquarters full-time. Elsewhere, employees split time between home and the office.
But few people who’ve watched this all unfold believe that resuming old patterns can work as a long-term strategy.
Sofos noted, for instance, a generational shift that’s underway. Millennial professionals are not wedded to the idea of large, conventional office space and even before COVID-19 hit, were accustomed to mobile workspaces.
“I doubt that another major office building in downtown Honolulu will ever be built again,” she added. “The new generation that’s coming up does not need office space, does not want office space, and the cost is prohibitive.”
The notion of repurposing buildings, which the industry often describes as “adaptive reuse,” has gained traction since the last recession a decade ago.
In some cities, distressed buildings such as motels have been sold and redeveloped as apartments. Those are less available in Honolulu, but the housing crisis certainly would support the conversion of transient vacation units to long-term rental use.
In order for larger-scale conversion costs to pencil out, stars need to align: Financing must be available in a timely way, and an owner needs to let the property go at a loss, national investment experts agree. And Hawaii building costs being what they are, adaptive reuse has been especially slow to catch on here.
One success story that began pre-pandemic is the renovation of the deteriorating Queen Emma Building opposite St. Andrew’s Cathedral as affordable rental units, now being rented out.
A great deal of work is necessary for this success to be replicated, and much of it lies in the laps of the Honolulu City Council and the new administration of Mayor Rick Blangiardi. However, sewers and other infrastructure required to accommodate a conversion to apartments are generally insufficient in areas not already developed for residential use.
Further, the enactment of Bill 7 in 2019 was geared to allow adding apartment units to certain qualifying properties; some such conversions are in progress.
Anton Krucky, director of the city’s Department of Housing and Homelessness, said on Friday that the administration seeks to build on that through the passage of Bill 1, now before the Council. The measure would offer grants to incentivize owners of walk-up buildings to renovate and add housing units to the inventory.
Both of these are good first steps. Solving a problem on this scale, though, will take state and county governments that clear the paths for financing and permitting projects.
Mayor Blangiardi has pledged greater efficiency in how building and rebuilding get done in Honolulu; there’s no better imperative to deliver on that promise than addressing its housing crisis now.