Go ahead and feel good about the prospect of moving into a less confining COVID-19 environment, Oahu. It’s been so long that island residents have been living with what the county defines as Tier 2 restrictions — in Week 17 now — that it’s hard to believe Tier 3 likely awaits around the corner.
But it would be wise — life-saving, in fact — to remember that an allowance for slightly larger gatherings, up to 10 people, doesn’t mean Hawaii is out of the woods. This state has done comparatively well controlling the infection rate but not well enough yet to insulate its people from the virus, which is mutating with every passing day.
The distribution of the vaccine was going relatively well, but last week’s delayed delivery of thousands of doses due to winter storms across the mainland serves as a reminder that this immunization process is going to have its hiccups. Don’t count on it ramping fast enough to make personal precautions irrelevant.
They’re not. In reality, even if Honolulu advances up a tier as expected on Thursday, the biggest change will be the doubling of the number of people per grouping. This will enable some plans that had been shelved for months, but the same constraints on personal behavior still apply.
Masking. Keeping distance between people not in one’s household. Attention to hand-washing and hygiene. Hawaii people can recite them in their sleep, but an observable number of them have grown lax about conforming to the rules already, even in Tier 2.
The greatest danger of the shift to Tier 3 is that they’ll figure the worst is behind them, leading Oahu to another surge. They may have forgotten last August when, after cases had been beaten back to single digits, the numbers skyrocketed past 100 and stayed elevated for weeks. It led to a lockdown almost as severe as when the pandemic began.
Businesses cannot tolerate another punishing retrenchment like that.
It will be up to new Mayor Rick Blangiardi this week to tailor the new rules to the current COVID-19 landscape, and to get Gov. David Ige to sign off on them. But here are a few key points in the current reopening framework:
>> Honolulu is on the brink of Tier 3 because the seven-day average of case counts has remained below 50 for nearly two weeks, as well as a positivity rate of under 2.5%.
>> Retail businesses and spiritual services no longer would have to restrict capacity to 50% as long as distancing can be maintained.
>> Gyms and fitness centers could double client counts to 50% capacity.
Among the big questions is whether youth sports will be allowed by the new administration. The city chart (www.oneoahu.org/reopening-strategy) would indicate that they won’t, but that could change.
Until it does, and even after, residents must continue to pay attention to their own behavior, the one element that is within their control. There are still big unknowns out there, not the least of which is the arrival of at least one of the COVID-19 variants. Mutations have made them more infectious and likely more potent, scientists said.
Herd immunity will not take effect, or offer broad protections, for months to come. The vaccines here are still making their way through the oldest age cohort of those 75 and up, and front-line essential workers.
And while it’s encouraging that on Friday the state announced plans to expand eligibility to those 70 and up, Hawaii’s senior citizens make up a large percentage of the population. The phase including the 65-74 age group, plus those with medical conditions and certain essential workers, comprise 47% of the population.
This means the far side of the pandemic is still a long way off. And it means it’s time to keep all eyes on the prize, not fall off the straight and narrow.
