One sage person once said about the NFL Draft, “The more you know, the less you know.”
So true.
I actually started following the draft in 1971 — it kind of coincided with my 49ers actually becoming competitive — and easily recall that first round.
Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning and Dan Pastorini became the first QBs taken 1-2-3. It took 28 years for that to be repeated (Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith). And it’s only been repeated twice since, one being last season (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye).
Super Bowl QBs Joe Theismann and Ken Anderson also were picked in 1971, but not first-rounders.
But it was more than a QB-centric draft.
John “The Diesel” Riggins also was in that 1971 first round, as was John Brockington, the first NFL RB to rush for more than 1,000 yards in his first three seasons, as well as Jack “The Assassin” Tatum and Jack Youngblood.
Muscle-bound Leon Burns, who played in Hawaii while at Long Beach State, was picked 13th. Two players named Thompson were drafted back-to-back. Elmo Wright, the first player I ever saw do a TD dance, was in the first round. Even a guy named Joe Moore – not our Joe Moore – was a first-rounder.
Yes, it was hard to find information back then. But that’s what made it memorable.
You had to buy a Street & Smith’s football magazine, wait for a Time Magazine All-American list and watch the 1-2 games that were televised — yeah, Hawaii was just five years in from getting live TV and a few years in from color TV. Geez, where’s the remote? Sorry, you had to physically walk to the TV and turn the knob. At least I didn’t have to fix the “rabbit ears” sitting on top of the TV.
But look now.
There are 30-something games televised – live BTW — on a Saturday. There’s the NFL Combine and Senior Bowl practices that are being shown live and discussed. There are podcasters who provide content nationally, as well as many who focus on one NFL team. One podcaster/content creator, Chase Senior, chats about two NFL teams — the 49ers and Eagles. Other podcasters have noted that Senior had more than a million following him during his live in-game podcast of the Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl.
There are millions of fans following and voicing their opinions, and, of course, there’s Mel Kiper, who ignited this boom.
There are mock drafts dropped everywhere on the Internet. There are even online mock draft simulators, where you can pick your team and the number of rounds you want to draft.
All this information leads to misinformation, where a media member once said the most lying occurs two weeks before the draft. Was the info leaked by teams as a smokescreen, or by an agent? I was once told agents would pay media members to talk about their client or even mock him higher in the draft. That’s unverified, but would you put that past an agent when money comes into play?
So doing a mock first round is just as difficult now with all this “information” as it was then.
Just look at the virtual journey taken by QB Shedeur Sanders in this year’s draft process. He was once mocked as QB1, then he fell behind Cam Ward. Now he might be behind Jaxson Dart.
Sanders has been mocked to No. 2 overall to the Browns; 3 to the Giants; 9 to the Saints; 21 to the Steelers, and even into the second round. He even got ripped by an unnamed quarterback coach of an NFL team.
His following is akin to that of Bronny James in the NBA Draft. (Though Sanders is a legit NFL top-tier player.)
One thing is for sure, all of this talk has generated interest, excitement, controversy and intrigue in the draft – not just in this draft, but every draft.
One national radio team voiced an opinion that, aside from WWE wrestling, the NFL Draft has grown more exponentially than any other sporting event.
You get no argument from me.
Star-Advertiser sports editor Curtis Murayama has been doing NFL mock drafts since way before they became popular and pervasive. Although there likely will be trades in Thursday’s first round, here’s how Murayama sees the first round playing out if there were no trades:
1. Tennessee (Needs: qb, edge, wr, lb, s)
Cam Ward, QB, Miami, 6-2, 219, 9” hand
Saw enough of him — two years at Washington State and one year at Miami — to know that he puts fear in opponents.
2. Cleveland (Needs: qb, ol, edge, rb, s)
Travis Hunter, cb/wr, Colorado, 6-0, 188
Best athlete in the draft, with big-play ability on both sides of the ball. Too bad he can’t play QB, which the Browns need.
3. NY Giants (Needs: qb, ol, lb, cb, dl)
Abdul Carter, E, Penn State, 6-3, 250
Calls himself the best player in the draft. He might be, but he’s dealing with injuries and has had a few minor arrests.
4. New England (Needs: ol, wr, dl, rb, cb)
Will Campbell, OT, LSU, 6-6, 319, 33” arms, 4.98, 32 VJ
If you look at his steady production, you might not notice his short arms, which are causing teams to pause.
5. Jacksonville (Needs: dl, cb, s, ol, wr)
Mason Graham, DT, Michigan, 6-31⁄2, 306, 24 BP
An interior game-wrecker. But what’s his true weight? His 318 listed weight, his 296 combine weight, or his 306 pro day weight?
6. Las Vegas (Needs: rb, wr, cb, s, ol)
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State, 5-81⁄2, 211
Good fit for Pete Carroll’s run-centric style. Some compare him to Emmitt Smith, so watch out for teams — such as the Bears, whose fans covet him — trading ahead of this spot to get him.
7. NY Jets (Needs: ol, wr, te, s, dl)
Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State, 6-51⁄2, 256
They’ve drafted O-linemen in the first two rounds in four of the past five drafts. Why not take a Gronk-like athlete?
8. Carolina (Needs: edge, s, cb, wr, dl)
Jalon Walker, E-LB, Georgia, 6-1, 243
Can be used as a stack LB or a DE. Just put him on the field and he makes plays all over the place.
9. New Orleans (Needs: cb, wr, ol, dl, qb)
Shedeur Sanders, qb, Colorado, 6-11⁄2 , 212, 93⁄8 hand
Good replacement for injured Derek Carr, if he’s available.
QB-needy teams might trade ahead. But while Ward can scare teams with his play-making ability, Sanders doesn’t.
10. Chicago (Needs: ol, rb, edge, wr, te)
Armand Membou, OL, Missouri, 6-4, 332, 331⁄2 arms, 4.91, 31 BP
Even with a solid O-line, it’ll be hard to pass up this guy. But the Bears have two second-round picks and could just trade up to get Jeanty or Warren, guys who could complete the rebuild.
11. San Francisco (Needs: dl, e, ol, lb, rb, cb)
Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss, 6-4, 296
With Membou and Campbell gone, Niners probably would like to trade down. If there are no takers, then Nolen fills a need, is versatile, athletic and grew up a 49ers fan.
12. Dallas (Needs: wr, rb, cb, lb, dl)
Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina, 6-0, 221, 4.46, 38 VJ
Considered just behind Jeanty but ahead of the other RBs in this deep RB class. Plus, it feels a gaping hole in the RB room.
13. Miami (Needs: ol, dl, s, cb, te)
Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas, 5-11, 194, 4.39, 35 VJ, 123 BJ
One of the elite corners who makes plays all over the field and would instantly improve a secondary that lost safety Jevon Holland to the Giants and could lose Jalen Ramsey to a trade.
14. Indianapolis (Needs: te, ol, lb, edge, rb)
Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan, 6-6, 248
A smooth route-running TE who some have as TE1. Now, he just needs a QB who can hit him in stride.
15. Atlanta (Needs: edge, dl, cb, ol, s)
Mike Green, E, Marshall, 6-3, 251, 28 BP
Might have the best moves of all the edge rushers. But faced sexual assault allegations in high school and college, a red flag.
16. Arizona (Needs: ol, wr, edge, dl, cb)
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona, 6-4, 219, 4.48
Imagine teamming this smooth-striding, jump-ball specialist with Marvin Harrison Jr. Good luck short corners.
17. Cincinnati (Needs: edge, s, lb, ol, cb)
Shemar Stewart, E, Texas A&M, 6-5, 267, 4.59, 50 VJ, 131 BJ
A freak athlete who plays hard but lacks production (just 41⁄2
career sacks). Has a high floor and an even higher ceiling.
18. Seattle (Needs: ol, wr, cb, s, dl)
Tyler Booker, OG, Alabama, 6-5, 321, 5.38, 21 BP, 27 VJ
This beast is a people mover and is a natural guard, giving him the nod over the versatile Grey Zabel, who played tackle at North Dakota State but projects inside. Good choice either way.
19. Tampa Bay (Needs: lb, cb, edge, s, ol)
Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama, 4.52, 127 BJ
Probably the best pure LB in the class. A dangerous blitzer who closes in on his target fast.
20. Denver (Needs: rb, wr, cb, te, dl)
Matthew Golden, WR, Texas, 5-11, 191, 4.29, 1.49 10 split
RB is the real need, but this WR is a perfect complement to Cortland Sutton, boasting elite speed, soft hands and crisp routes.
21. Pittsburgh (Needs: qb, rb, dl, wr, ol)
Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss, 6-2, 223, 91⁄2 hand
Would like to trade up for Sanders, but they have only six total picks and no second-rounder to offer.
22. L.A. Chargers (Needs: te, wr, dl, rb, edge)
Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan, 6-3, 330, 5.11, 27 BP, 4.76 SS
He’s a Jim Harbaugh type of guy. Oh, he was while at Michigan. Fills a spot vacated when Poona Ford left in free agency. Could also eye an edge rusher with the loss of Joey Bosa.
23. Green Bay (Needs: cb, wr, edge, dl, ol)
Will Johnson, CB, Michigan, 6-2, 194
Considered the top CB, with ability to make key picks. But he’s ailing and hasn’t run a 40 in the whole draft process.
24. Minnesota (Needs: cb, ol, s, lb, dl)
Malaki Starks, S, Georgia, 6-1, 197, 4.5, 33 VJ, 4.45 SS
Extremely gifted with hands and body control of a receiver. Plays much faster than his pedestrian 40 time.
25. Houston (Needs: ol, wr, dl, s, cb)
Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas, 6-5, 315, 5.16, 32 VJ, 4.66 SS
This Longhorn should help improve an overhauled area and could be better in the future based on his athletic traits.
26. L.A. Rams (Needs: lb, cb, ol, s, te)
Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky, 5-11, 183, 4.28
A blur who can cover all over the field, deep, over the middle, sideline; he’s also a willing tackler and a special teams gunner.
27. Baltimore (Needs: ol, cb, s, dl, edge)
Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon, 6-41⁄2, 313, 4.95
Harmon led all interior DTs in pressures, but his metrics vs. the run weren’t up to par. If that area improves, watch out.
28. Detroit (Needs: Edge, ol, s, dl, wr)
James Pearce, E, Tennessee, 6-5, 245, 4.47, 31 VJ, 123 BJ
Jets off the edge like no other in this draft, someone the Lions sorely need to play opposite Aidan Hutchinson.
29. Washington (Needs: Edge, cb, wr, s, ol)
Mason Taylor, TE, LSU, 6-5, 251, 4.65, 28 BP, 4.52 SS
Smooth, with great hands, but surprising strength. He’ll make a fine target for his former LSU teammate, QB Jayden Daniels.
30. Buffalo (Needs: cb, dl, wr, edge, s)
Nick Emmanwori, S, So. Carolina, 6-3, 220, 4.38, 20 BP, 43 VJ
He puts a fear factor in the secondary, with his freak ability to cover the field and make plays.
31. Kansas City (Needs: dl, ol, edge, s, wr)
Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State, 6-5, 317, 34 BP
Could target a WR such as Luther Burden III or Emeka Egbuka, but Simmons is a top-10 talent and was OT1 before tearing his patellar tendon. Will he return to form? If he does, he’s a steal.
32. Philadelphia (Needs: s, dl, cb, edge, ol)
Mykel Williams, E, Georgia, 6-5, 260, 4.75
Another Georgia Bulldog joins the Philly defense. Why not? All of them have been hits so far.
