A decades-old plan to protect Waikiki and neighboring communities against a potential flooding disaster appears to have stalled yet again.
This time the issue, in part, is related to the project’s persistently escalating price tag.
As detailed under the city and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers project’s 3,741-page Ala Wai Flood Risk Management Draft General Re-evaluation Report and Integrated Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement published in 2023, the project’s estimated cost — originally priced at over $345 million a few years earlier — soared to nearly $1.1 billion.
The city, as the project’s partner, would supposedly pay $376 million, with the federal government footing the rest.
But at a Feb. 27 event hosted by the Hawaii Hotel Alliance and the American Hotel & Lodging Association, Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi told attendees inside the Waikiki Beach Marriott Resort & Spa, including Gov. Josh Green, that the Ala Wai flood control project’s overall cost had increased more than tenfold, to a whopping $11.1 billion.
“It’s out of reach,” the mayor declared.
Later asked to confirm the accuracy of the $11.1 billion figure, the Mayor’s Office did not refute the amount but declined to comment further on the project’s costs, its current status or its future.
Instead, the mayor offered a written statement to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser: “We are committed to doing everything in our power to protect the thriving economic driver that is Waikiki.
“Given recent disasters that were once considered unthinkable — the Maui fires, COVID, Red Hill — it would be naive to simply hope something bad does not occur,” Blangiardi said. “We look forward to continuing our productive conversations with our partners at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to find practical solutions that can prevent the very real risk of a catastrophic flood while also being fiscally responsible.”
The Mayor’s Office deferred all remaining questions pertaining to the Ala Wai flood control project to the Army Corps.
The Army Corps, like the city, would neither confirm nor deny the $11.1 billion price tag the mayor announced.
However, “(The Army Corps) continues to evaluate options through the study process to manage flood risk in the community to support public safety, community resilience and economic opportunities,” an agency spokesperson told the Star-Advertiser.
The agency also maintained the importance of the Ala Wai flood control project.
“We are committed to partnering with the City and County of Honolulu to help shape a plan that provides a solution to protect critical infrastructure and communities along the Ala Wai watershed and Waikiki from potential impacts of catastrophic flooding,” the spokesperson said.
Flood walls
With climate change generating sea-level rise and increasing the potential for powerful storms, the threat of a flooding disaster looms large for about 200,000 residents living along the Makiki, Manoa and Palolo streams as well as on the Ala Wai Canal.
The Ala Wai Flood Risk Management project dates back to 1999, but it wasn’t authorized and funded for design and construction until 2018.
The effort hit the skids in 2020, however, after estimated costs nearly doubled to $651 million amid community dissension about the flood walls planned around the Ala Wai.
As planned, the high-dollar project’s controversial berms and concrete walls around Ala Wai Canal remain. Flood walls averaging 6 feet high would be built around the length of the canal, although the plan called for an elevated walking path on the walls — a feature the Army Corps contended will help soften visual impacts.
In the plan, too, the Ala Wai Golf Course would serve as a floodwater detention basin with an earthen berm built 6 to 9 feet tall around the course.
Both the golf course and flood wall projects would help minimize flooding risk for Waikiki and nearby communities, including those in Manoa Valley.
Flood walls averaging 6 feet high would be built along Woodlawn Drive and Koali Road to reduce flooding risk to the Manoa area, while flood walls averaging 6 feet in height would go in along Kaimuki High School to reduce risk to communities east and southeast of the Manoa-Palolo drainage canal.
‘Real estate impacts’
The mayor’s comments over the latest cost of the flood control project appear related to a federal civil lawsuit lodged in 2014 by property owners who alleged they were negatively impacted by Army Corps flood mitigation work next to the Missouri River.
The plaintiffs in Ideker Farms v. United States claimed the Army Corps caused flooding and damage to their respective properties while working on a project that spanned six states along portions of the waterway’s 2,300-mile course.
The lawsuit asserted that “farmlands, personal property and businesses” were severely damaged by these flood mitigation efforts — or taken by the federal government — in such a way that violated the takings clause of the Fifth Amendment, which bars the government from taking private property without just compensation.
In 2023, a U.S. Court of Appeals ruling determined the Army Corps was responsible and that three plaintiffs in the case could receive over $7 million in damages to their respective properties, and the U.S. Court of Federal Claims has since ruled against the Army Corps’ ongoing contention that the case should be dismissed outright based on its lack of merit.
In Honolulu, the Ideker case could pose profound impacts on the Ala Wai flood control project’s future — namely, that hundreds of private landowners along the project’s path may desire hefty compensation if flood mitigation efforts cause damage to privately owned properties.
With regard to the legal case, the Army Corps’ spokesperson said, “The Ala Wai Flood Risk Management Study is currently being evaluated … based on peer reviews, and public comments from the draft report to include how the Ideker Farms decision and other conditions will impact the tentatively selected plan.
“Future decisions will be made in collaboration with the City and County of Honolulu and shared with the community and stakeholders,” the spokesperson added.
The agency also asserts “the cost of the project is still being developed.”
“There are multiple factors that go into developing a cost estimate, including design considerations, environmental considerations, as well as construction market conditions across the nation,” the spokesperson said. “The Ideker Farms decision has clarified how real estate impacts are characterized, which is an important factor driving cost considerations in an urban environment such as the Ala Wai watershed.”
But regarding the project’s costs, the Army Corps said “the base structural elements” of the Ala Wai plan published Nov. 24, 2023, have not changed and were estimated at $775 million.
“The total estimated project cost with the nonstructural mitigation measures for residual flood risk management was $1.075 billion,” the spokesperson said. “The cost of the base structural elements will continue to change due to market conditions and inflation; however, the features are the same.
“What’s changed is the amount of money factored into the cost from real estate impacts, as a result of the Ideker Farms decision changing the characterization of how real estate impacts are calculated,” the spokesperson stated. “Until we fully develop real estate impacts as a result of the Ideker Farms decision, we can’t update the factors mentioned earlier. The next step is to fully develop real estate impacts and understand how to manage, or reduce those impacts, then we can understand how that changes our cost.”
Cost concerns
News of the apparent $11.1 billion cost for the joint city and federal project designed to save Waikiki and adjacent areas was of concern to many in the community.
“I know they’ve been talking about this for 30 years,” said Bob Finley, Waikiki Neighborhood Board chairperson. “As to the number, that’s an amazing amount of money; they probably could have finished the rail for that.”
In terms of actual consequences for not finishing the Army Corps project, Finley said Waikiki area high-rises, including his own 50-year-old building, continue to experience flooding events.
“The elevator shafts are our big problem,” he explained. “I know in my particular building we’ve added a second sump pump to our elevator pit, just because of the amount of water that comes in when we have king tides and heavy rains.”
Finley also alluded to the Trump administration’s current freeze on federal funding for various projects and programs, which may hamper the Ala Wai project. “I think right now everybody’s looking at where federal money is going to go to,” he added.
As far as the flood control project’s new purported $11.1 billion price tag, Waikiki Improvement Association President Rick Egged believes “even $1 billion is probably too much.”
“I think that they’ll have to evaluate what is viable and what isn’t, but I’d like to see the project move forward,” he said. “I think there’s still a very real flood risk and I’d like to see whatever solutions that can be viable explored.”
But he asserted the project’s cost remains prohibitive. “It has to be scaled back to an affordable level,” Egged said.
Kathryn Henski, a Waikiki Neighborhood Board member, said she’s “deeply saddened by the fact that this project has not progressed in a timely manner.”
A Hawaii resident since 1975, Henski related how her family survived Hurricane Ike, which slammed into Galveston, Texas, in September 2008 and damaged much of that island city. She said she did not want to see the same happen to Waikiki or the rest of Oahu.
“The island make-up is identical to Waikiki,” she said of Galveston. “On one side is the Gulf of Mexico, on the other side of the island is the Intercoastal Waterway … and I have photographs that you would not believe where sand and accumulated boats and cars and paint cans (are piled) 6 feet high in the middle of the highway, that have to be bulldozed off the streets in order to get back” to homes.
The surrounding beaches of Galveston were contaminated with “paints and pesticides” killing ocean wildlife, she added.
“And I’ve learned that this could happen here in Waikiki. I’m afraid it will. Tremendous loss of life will occur,” Henski said. “We need something to protect Waikiki.”
‘Honest answers’ sought
State Sen. Sharon Moriwaki (D, Waikiki-Ala Moana-Kakaako) also is concerned about the stalled Ala Wai flood control project. But since the project is largely a city project involving the federal government, she noted the state government was not readily involved.
“So I’m just trying to put some projects together, separate from the Army Corps project,” Moriwaki said. “We’re working with the (University of Hawaii) School of Engineering, and having their faculty and students work with the Department of Land and Natural Resources.”
Of her plan, she said about $1 million in funding is in the fiscal year 2026 state budget “to be able to do a little bit more research on the area and what we can do to find some solutions that are innovative and more sustainable.”
“But it’s different from the Army Corps project, which is still ongoing,” Moriwaki added.
Waikiki Neighborhood Board member Jeffrey Merz said he was well aware of the cost increases over the years regarding the Ala Wai flood control project, “with the change in design predicated on concerns from the neighbors, and citizens upstream.”
“I knew the costs were going up,” he said. “Costs never really go down, so it doesn’t surprise me. But those numbers ($11.1 billion) are shocking, especially knowing from what we know in the community: That they haven’t come up with an approved or actionable plan yet.
“That sounds pretty outrageous, and especially if it’s not tied to a specific design for what they’re proposing,” he said. “And I know they were trying to get away from building the walls, that sort of thing, but I would think the prices are never going to go down, but I’d be curious if they’re doing some ‘soft solutions’ upstream.”
He noted the project’s primary focus is “to preserve Waikiki” and that it’s “time sensitive.”
“So I’m very concerned — I live in Waikiki — and it affects the entire state if Waikiki gets flooded out,” he said. “I just think let’s get some answers and let’s get a time frame, and in light of the current federal cuts and disruption, what’s guaranteed?
“I just wish we had more honest answers from the politicians as well as the Corps of Engineers,” Merz added.
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The Star-Advertiser Waikiki bureau chief Allison Schaefers contributed to this report.
