Seeking resilience and energy security, Gov. Josh Green’s January executive order accelerates Hawaii’s clean-energy future. Like resilient power, resilient internet service and communications systems are also critical to public safety. You too can plan for climate resilience by understanding climate risks to your home or business.
But as a result of climate change, past natural events — such as king tides, storm surges, sea level rise and coastal erosion — no longer serve as reliable indicators of future risks. Traditional building codes look backward to assess risks by calculating, for example, a “100-year flood” based on past rain events. This approach is no longer sufficient to predict future climate conditions. So, how can individuals and businesses plan for climate-related risks when the past no longer accurately represents the future?
Start with the right data: Start by reviewing the best available data. In Hawaii, sea levels are rising, with models indicating that Hawaii will experience sea level rise, or SLR, 16% to 20% higher than the global average. A trusted tool for future climate modeling is the State of Hawai‘i Sea Level Rise Viewer (pacioos.hawaii.edu/shoreline/ slr-hawaii), which offers potential scenarios for SLR, passive flooding, annual high wave flooding and coastal erosion. No one can predict the future, so the viewer shows potential exposure areas.
Consider multiple risk scenarios: Since future conditions are uncertain, looking at multiple scenarios provides ranges of possibilities rather than definitive answers. For example, if the global community takes urgent and significant action to reduce emissions, low-SLR scenarios in the viewer are possible. If urgent decarbonization does not occur and natural tipping points are passed, the high-SLR scenarios are possible.
Based on a 2022 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-led interagency report, SLR projections for Hawaii range from 0.3 to 0.5 foot by 2030 (relative to 2000 levels) and 0.7 to 1.5 feet by 2050, with a midrange estimate of 1 foot by 2050. Explore the effect of each of the SLR scenarios in the viewer to guide your own planning, keeping in mind that no one scenario is “right” and the outcomes on the map aren’t definitive, but are still informative.
Leverage technology for risk assessment: While individuals and small businesses can check homes or parcels in the SLR viewer, larger organizations can easily download the climate scenario data and combine it with maps of their current and planned infrastructure using ArcGIS software. In our risk analysis, Hawaiian Telcom visualized where our infrastructure intersects with climate hazards in ArcGIS and ran custom analyses to proactively plan and design for a range of future conditions.
Takeaways: Hawaii residents and businesses must consider a range of possible climate outcomes to better prepare for the challenges that lie ahead. Hawaiian Telcom is committed to planning and designing a robust, new fiber network to serve Hawaii for generations, informed by climate change scenarios. The State of Hawai‘i Sea Level Rise Viewer is a resiliency tool available to all — large and small — who call Hawaii home, to evaluate future scenarios and plan for change.
Nadja Turek is director of sustainability for Hawaiian Telcom and its parent altafiber. She can be reached at nadja.turek@hawaiiantel.com.
