A rebound may be underway for the size of Hawaii’s population.

Based on new and revised previous U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the number of people residing in Hawaii rose in each of the past two years.

The gains were small but support better potential economic growth because more residents add to what has been a constrained labor force, according to Eugene Tian, the state’s chief economist.

Census estimates suggest that Hawaii’s population edged up 0.3%, or by 4,759 people, in 2024 and bumped up the total population count to 1,446,146 from 1,441,387 in 2023.

The Census Bureau also revised upward an earlier Hawaii population estimate for 2023 to reflect a slight gain from 2022 instead of a previously reported decline. This gain was 0.07%, or 1,028 more residents. Before the revision the size of Hawaii’s population in 2023 was estimated to have fallen 0.3%, or by 4,261 people.

The revision for 2023 and recent estimate for 2024 suggest that Hawaii’s population is on a slight upswing that followed a four-year decline from 2019 to 2022.

However, local economists question how accurate the Census estimates may be for 2023 and 2024.

Carl Bonham, director of the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, said at a briefing on the local economy made to the state House Finance Committee in January that he was somewhat skeptical about the Census Bureau methodology for estimating immigration in Hawaii, which represents one part of population change.

“My guess is that’s significantly overestimating what we are seeing from migration,” he said. “I say that without proof. It’s just looking at the methodology, my gut is that it’s probably overestimating.”

The Census Bureau takes a national count for immigration and allocates it proportionally among states by population size and historical demographics about residents who are foreign-­born. Hawaii has a high foreign-­born population, so the 2024 estimate and revised 2023 estimate for how many foreigners took up residence in Hawaii tends to be relatively high.

Tian has the same view as Bonham, and said he was surprised by the Census data suggesting Hawaii’s population rose a little in each of the past two years.

“It’s a methodological issue,” Tian said. “We are one of the highest (states) in the U.S. in terms of foreign-born population.”

During the legislative briefing, Bonham said the latest estimates for Hawaii population increases in 2023 and 2024 should not suggest that there has been any change in the dynamic with the high local cost of living and shortage of affordable housing pressuring residents to leave the state.

According to the most recent Census estimates, 9,321 more U.S. citizens moved out of Hawaii than moved to the state in 2024.

For non-U.S. citizens the Census Bureau estimated that the incoming number outweighed the outgoing number by 11,893.

Another factor in population change, births and deaths, was reported to have resulted in a net gain of 2,271 Hawaii residents in 2024.

Tian expects this last factor, known as natural population change, will continue to be positive until 2034. However, he also said he has a feeling that the anticipated shift to negative natural population change, influenced by Hawaii’s aging population, could come sooner.

The state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism forecasts that Hawaii’s 20-year population change through 2040 will be a positive 0.3%, followed by 0.1% growth from 2040 to 2050, with migration being the main driver.