Auto sales in Hawaii ran out of gas and fell 3.2% in 2024, but this year’s outlook is seen as promising yet fraught with uncertainty.

New-vehicle registrations, coming off their third consecutive down year, are expected to rise 2.4% to 46,200, according to a fourth-quarter report released recently from Hawaii Auto Outlook.

However, Jeffrey Foltz, editor of the report, cautioned that potential changes in government policies threaten that outlook.

Foltz said possible tax cuts, an increase in tariffs and reductions in the labor force due to deportations could hover over the automobile market.

“Most economists agree that collectively, these policy initiatives would accelerate inflation, potentially reversing recent improvements in affordability,” Foltz said in the report, which is produced for the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association.

“Despite these potential negatives, we think a strong labor market and pent-up demand accumulated during five years of below- average sales should be sufficient to push the market higher in 2025.”

State auto sales declined in 2024 to 45,104 from 46,593 in the previous 12 months. The drop-off follows on the heels of a 2.5% decline in 2023 and a 12.5% fall in 2022.

On an encouraging note, however, sales inched up 1.8% in the fourth quarter.

Sales were down for the year on each of the four major islands: off 18.8% on Kauai, down 6.6% on Hawaii island, weaker by 3.9% on Maui and down 1% on Oahu.

The state’s overall performance fell short of the U.S. market, where auto sales rose 3.1% for 2024.

New-vehicle registrations can be representative of auto sales, but the two don’t always align because a buyer can purchase a vehicle one month and register it in another. The data is based on county Department of Motor Vehicles registrations.

Hybrid vehicles continued making progress in the state amid Hawaii’s goal to achieve 100% clean energy by 2045.

New hybrid vehicle registrations increased 34% from a year ago and hybrid’s market share reached 11.3% compared with 8.2% in 2023.

Meanwhile, battery electric vehicle registrations had a 14% market share in 2024 versus 13.2% a year earlier, and plug-in hybrids’ market share was 2% compared with 1.6% in 2023.

Toyota was the bestselling brand in 2024 with a 27.6% market share, followed by Honda at 12.6%, Tesla at 8%, Ford at 6.5% and Nissan at 6%.

The market share for the top-selling models in the state were To­yota Tacoma, 7.4%; Tesla Model Y, 5.3%; Toyota RAV4, 4.5%; Toyota 4Runner, 4.1%; and To­yota Corolla, 3.4%.

Light trucks — which include vans, SUVs and pickups — maintained their large lead over cars with a 77.7% market share versus 22.3% for cars. Consumers continue to opt for larger vehicles because of more visibility, additional room for storage and stable gas prices.