Reports of China’s completing its ninth Type 055 guided missile cruiser and the inclusion of introductory flight operations by China’s latest carrier, Fujian, are but two components of Beijing’s growing power in the Western Pacific. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) already vastly outnumbers the U.S. Navy in warships and the People’s Republic’s (PRC’s) are concentrated in the Western Pacific. Nor is the PLAN alone in challenging the U.S. and its allies’ maritime power.
The PRC’s Coast Guard, the world’s largest, and paramilitary maritime militia also play key roles in pressuring America’s allies in the East and South China Sea, and all of the PRC’s maritime forces enjoy the increasingly integrated support of the PLA Air and Rocket Force. The PRC’s exercises in and around Taiwan are expanding in number, joint service participation and complexity.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) is aware of the challenges and no doubt has plans to deal with any resulting contingency that may arise from them.
But will the command receive the resources it needs to face a strategic competitor that has initiated an almost unprecedented air, naval and missile build-up while escalating its intimidation of its neighbors?
The PLAN will commission a guided missile cruiser, destroyer and frigate this year and is on track to build two guided missile cruisers and a similar number of lesser warships a year through 2027. The Fujian (CNS 018) — China’s first Catapult Assisted Takeoff But Arrested Landing (CATOBAR) aircraft carrier — will become operational later this year and the larger follow-on Type 004 will launch as well. China will start construction of China’s fifth carrier within 90 days of that.
PLAN carrier air wings are also scheduled to receive improved aircraft. Fujian’s air wing will include KJ-600 Airborne Early Warning-Control System (AEW-CS) aircraft and the J-15T, the more capable version of the J-15 carried by China’s two ski-jump carriers.
America’s carrier force remains larger and equipped with superior aircraft, but the latter may change as China’s fifth-generation stealth aircraft, the J-35, enters service over the next one to two years. PRC media claims sixth-generation stealth prototypes are already flying, but even if true, production lies five to 10 years away. Nonetheless, the trend is not in America’s favor.
Fortunately, America’s Pacific Fleet is also not alone.
INDOPACOM’s other service components are contributing to the air-maritime mission. The Army and Marine Corps have developed long-range anti-ship capability, and the Air Force has developed a mobile air power maneuver concept and is rebuilding the array of staging bases to support it. That concept promises to complicate any enemy’s base targeting plans while presenting a flexible and hopefully unpredictable array of American air power threat axes.
However, America’s declining mercantile fleet and shipbuilding industry require rejuvenation. Foreign-flag vessels are less likely to transport military and other supplies into a danger zone. America’s merchant fleet is down to fewer than 60 oceangoing ships crewed by a declining and aging work force. Ships still transport over 90% of global goods and will carry a similar percentage of military equipment, material and supplies in any conflict.
Changing America’s current maritime shipping situation will require construction of new ships but more importantly, inspiring a new generation of Americans to go to sea. America’s economy depends on maritime commerce, and so will its military if conflict erupts.
America has allies and partners, but relationships require nurturing. Beijing is challenging America’s relationships in the Southwest and Central Pacific through a combination of aid and trade. It has proven successful so far because America has ignored those relationships for nearly 20 years. That needs to change.
All of this requires resources, and diplomatic and political support. INDOPACOM will do its part if properly supported, but let’s hope our political leaders understand its need and those of its other agencies involved in the Indo-Pacific for the resources required to meet the growing challenges they face on America’s behalf.
Carl O. Schuster is a retired U.S. Navy captain and former instructor at Hawaii Pacific University’s Diplomacy and Military Studies program.