On your marks, get set, go!
Shoppers must recover from their Thanksgiving food comas earlier this year since the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas totals just 26 days, five days less than 2023, when Thanksgiving was in the third week of November.
Traditionally, Black Friday, the Friday after Thanksgiving, kicks off the holiday shopping season. In 2023, Black Friday fell on Nov. 24, and shoppers had seven days until they hit the desperate rush of December. This year Black Friday falls on Nov. 29, leaving only two shopping days until December.
In recent years there’s been a consumer trend of early shopping, and the National Retail Federation estimated that 2 out of every 5 holiday shoppers would start browsing and buying before November. NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics estimates that a record 183.4 million people will shop during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Still, NRF estimates that most holiday shoppers will wrap up in December and purchase their last gifts in the week leading up to Dec. 25, or Christmas, which falls on a Wednesday.
Last-minute shoppers will have even less time this year, and stores must push out deals even earlier if they hope to meet or surpass 2023 levels. Small Business Saturday, which was founded by American Express in 2010 to help small businesses thrive and since 2011 has officially been co-sponsored by the Small Business administration, is on Nov. 30. But Cyber Monday — the day for online deals — misses the November cutoff and is on Monday.
Stephanie England, general manager of Ka Makana Ali‘i, the center for West Oahu, said the management team has been planning for the shortened calendar all year long, and held a meeting in September to help tenants understand the impact of the calendar shift, which was caused by the leap year.
“The way the tenants are approaching it and the way the restaurateurs are approaching it is that they are pushing information out sooner to engage that shopper or diner earlier,” England said. “Many have launched pre-Black Friday sales, so they are trying to push that traffic sooner rather than waiting for Black Friday to launch.”
Despite the shorter holiday shopping period, England said Ka Makana Ali‘i expects a robust holiday season.
“We are expecting a greater spend than we saw last year,” she said. “I’m also very excited because the weather looks like it is going to be just beautiful. It’s our rainy season, so sometimes the weather can impact us, but it does not look like we are going to see that this holiday season. We think we’ll have people lining up for Black Friday on Thanksgiving.”
NRF also forecasts a bright holiday, with spending from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 coming in 2.5% to 3.5% better than the same period in 2023. NRF estimates that retail spending will reach a record $979.5 billion to $989 billion, up from $955.6 billion during the same time in 2023.
NRF’s holiday forecast is consistent with its annual year-end sales forecast that retailers will finish this year up 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. The estimate also measures favorably with the pre-pandemic average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement, “The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year. The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”
The NRF said holidays typically are more profitable for retailers since purchase volumes increase without significantly increasing the cost of doing business. It estimated that holiday shoppers are expected to spend a record $902 per person on average across gifts, decorations, food and other key seasonal items.
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement, “We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year. Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.”
The NRF’s holiday forecast considers changes in consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. A reason that overall retail growth is expected to rise is the expectation that online shopping will continue growing. Online and other nonstore sales, which are included in the NRF total, are expected to increase 8%-9% this year at $295.1 billion to $297.9 billion.
England said brick-and-mortar retailers also are cashing in on online trends.
“We are seeing customers shop online and then coming into the store to pick their items up,” she said. “Retailers get the online sale and then get to upsale when they walk through the doors.”
She said Ka Makana Ali‘i helps draw customers to brick-and-mortar tenants also by offering photos with Santa, Black Friday deals, surprise-and-delight giveaways, Shop Local Saturday gift with purchase, a country Christmas concert series, Merry Shop & Stroll events, the magical snowing tree and extended holiday shopping hours.
England said a KMA Country Christmas Concert Series starts Friday when Bobby Moderow takes center stage from 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. The celebration continues with country music and line dancing with Dita Holifield and Friends on Dec. 6 and 13 from 7 to 8:30 p.m.
England said Ka Makana Ali‘i will offer pictures with Santa through Dec. 29, and on every Wednesday between Thanksgiving and Christmas, will host Merry Shop & Stroll events, a series of theme nights with Santa and Mrs. Claus.
While the NRF forecast covers only the winter holidays from Thanksgiving to Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa, many retailers in Hawaii, especially those that rely on tourism, extend their peak winter shopping period all the way to Jan. 3.
Stefani Li Zaborski, director of marketing and business development for Waikele Premium Outlets, said the center has a strong Black Friday following, and lines are expected even before the center opens at 5 a.m.
“We are the earliest shopping center to open on Black Friday, and we’ll stay open until 11 p.m. — we have the longest Black Friday hours of any shopping center,” Zaborski said, adding that over the Black Friday weekend, the outlets will be open from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. Saturday and from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. Sunday.
“We are the only outlet shopping center in Hawaii, so I think people know to come here to get all the good deals and to do all of their holiday shopping here,” she said. “I mean, there’s free parking.You aren’t driving into Waikiki or anything. I think it’s just more accessible for people, and it’s very budget-friendly.”
Zaborski said a range of Black Friday deals already can be found premiumoutlets.com/outlet/waikele/deals.
Helene “Sam” Shenkus, vice president and director of marketing for the Royal Hawaiian Center, said retailers in the center are more focused on value than deals.
While RHC tenants seldom offer heavy discounting, Shenkus said that each year during the holidays, the center offers free pictures with Santa and free gifts to shoppers who meet a minimum spending threshold. This year, she said, shoppers who spend $500 or more will receive a limited-edition travel duffel bag, while those spending $100 or more can receive a vanity bag.
“A single-day spend of $600 or more will earn both gifts,” she said. “The bags are sheer, which is very stylish right now.”
Shenkus said the center doesn’t have special holiday hours, but is open 365 days a year from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.
“We see last-minute shoppers, and this year there will be a lot of people freaking out when they realize that they really only have December to get everything done,” she said. “We are open on Christmas for the truly desperate. But we also see people in Hermes, Tiffany and other luxury shops buying themselves a gift. Why not? If you didn’t get what you want, we’re open and happy to to help you.”
Shenkus said the Royal Hawaiian Center’s peak holiday shopping period tends to run from Dec. 20 to Jan. 3.
“We peak when the hotels are full,” she said. “I think this year will be stronger than last year. The currency is still an issue, but we are projecting good international arrivals for the festive season.”
Shenkus said an incredibly popular shopping time at the center is Shogatsu, the Japanese New Year holiday, when the center celebrates Fukubukuro — the Japanese New Year tradition of buying “lucky bags” with discounted mystery items.
“You don’t know what’s in the bag, which has a retail value on the tag,” she said. “What you get is a mystery, but it’s first quality and 50% off the retail value. It’s a lucky fun way to start the New Year.”
While peak shopping dates might differ, few retailers will disagree on the importance of the holiday period. The NRF estimates that overall November and December holiday sales have averaged about 19% of total retail sales over the past five years.
England said, “It’s called Black Friday because many times a lot of retailers are operating in the red up until this time, which is the kickoff for the holiday season that pushes retailers into the black.”
TOP TOYS FOR HOLIDAY 2024
RANK: BOYS | GIRLS
1: Legos | Barbie
2: Hot Wheels | Dolls
3: Cars | Legos
4: Video games | Makeup/beauty
5: PlayStation | Disney items
6: Remote-controlled cars | Baby dolls
7: Video game consoles | Barbie Dreamhouse
8: Nerf | Clothes
9: Spider-Man | Electronics
10: Trucks | Squishmallows
Source: NRF’s 2024 November Holiday Consumer Survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics
TOP GIFTS CONSUMERS EXPECT TO GIVE
Clothing or accessories | 54%
Gift cards | 44%
Toys | 36%
Books, video games and other media | 31%
Food/candy | 30%
Personal care or beauty items | 28%
Electronics | 23%
Jewelry | 20%
Home decor or furnishings | 19%
Sporting goods or leisure items | 17%
Source: NRF’s 2024 November Holiday Consumer Survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics
