Tokyo >> A stay-at-home mom could not help but sigh when she saw the rice prices at a Benny supermarket in Adachi ward, Tokyo, in late September.

“I have four children and our family eats through 30 kilograms (66 pounds) of rice each month,” the woman said. “I’ve been to several supermarkets, but rice is so expensive and I can’t afford it.”

The supermarket had ample bags of newly harvested rice grown in Chiba, Niigata and other prefectures, but prices were about 50% to 80% higher than last year. While shipments of some types of rice have been in steady supply since late August, shelves for major brand-name rice remained mostly empty.

“We’ve managed to secure supplies of newly harvested rice, but it’s expensive and hasn’t sold well,” said a senior supermarket official.

The situation has been a common one across Japan this year. A rice shortage and the staple grain’s high price have put a strain on household budgets.

Newly appointed Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Yasuhiro Ozato said at a press conference that he would consider reviewing the nation’s rice policies.

A supply shortage was at the root of the surging prices. A summer heat wave in 2023 negatively impacted rice quality and squeezed the available supply. The situation was exacerbated by consumers stockpiling rice in preparation for potential disasters.

Ordinarily, more than 50% of rice distributed on the market passes through the JA Group, a body of agricultural cooperatives. But this year has been different.

A Kyushu wholesaler that buys large amounts of rice from JA was told by the group that it could provide only about half of last year’s volume. Private companies apparently had been securing rice by paying higher prices than JA could afford.

Government stockpiles untapped

There had been early warnings that a rice shortage was looming, but the government’s response often has been one step behind.

The average wholesale price for rice announced by the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ministry increased for four consecutive months since March. Yet even when shops began running low on rice, the government remained reluctant to tap its rice stockpile.

Soon, supplies of rice grown in Hokkaido, a major production area, will hit the market in greater volume. “Prices will settle down to some extent from the end of October or early November,” said Yasufumi Miwa, a chief researcher at the Japan Research Institute.

However, rice production costs are continuing to climb. “I doubt rice prices will return to last year’s levels,” Miwa said. “I think prices that are 10% to 20% higher … will become the norm.”

Recently, Toru Yamano, chairman of the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives, called for understanding about the cost pressures growers were facing. “These additional costs need to be reflected in the sales price,” Yamano said.

Ishiba hints at changes

The volume of rice consumed in Japan has been declining for many years as people eat an increasingly diversified diet.

Long-term demand for rice is expected to continue trending downward, and it’s possible that higher prices could accelerate consumers’ shift away from eating rice.

In a bid to prevent excessive rice production from bringing prices down, the government earlier had adopted a policy of cutting back the acreage under cultivation, and annual production limits were assigned to each prefecture. The policy was abolished in 2018.

But current subsidies are paid to farmers who grow wheat, soybeans and rice for animal feed, not rice for human consumption, leading some experts to argue that the restrictive policy is effectively still in place.

The high cost of rice even became an issue during the recent Liberal Democratic Party election in which Shigeru Ishiba was selected as the new prime minister.

During the campaign, Ishiba said he would increase rice production by reviewing and adjusting production levels, and that he would provide direct compensation to farmers who were affected by falling rice prices.