During September’s presidential debate, Vice President Kamala Harris avoided explaining the past three years’ economy. Rather, she focused on ideas for an economic future while prodding former President Donald Trump into his nonsensical tirades.
I’m not a politician where vagueness is key. So, please hear me out as to why the economy is not an either/or for Harris or Trump.
As we know, in 2020, the economy essentially shut down from the pandemic. Small- to medium-sized businesses and out-of-work employees were subsidized with billions in federal dollars to sustain employment. In some instances, people were making more in unemployment than by working.
The Trump administration twice threw huge rounds of stimulus money into the economy. President Joe Biden distributed additional millions once in office.
Thus, many Americans had money to spend and time on their hands. Amazon purchases thrived. Within a year, many embraced COVID-19 vaccinations and felt invincible, while anti-vaxxers felt no need for shots. Americans wanted to move on, socialize once again, and reconnect.
We began traveling to escape, working from remote locations. With money in our pockets and movement to be had, stifled shipping plus oil production did not foresee the sudden demand. Freight services sold to the highest bidder, substantially increasing prices. Shipyards didn’t have workers to take in goods. Large items such as lumber and appliances were hardest hit, becoming scarce. Food prices climbed worldwide. Economies shook from suspension then explosion of demand.
Inflation grew globally. Our country’s real estate values rapidly increased due to cheap mortgage money and steady salaries. Residential rents rose partly due to over-stimulation, and partly due to homes being reassigned as short-term rental from long-term because of travel demand.
Since then, homeowners with 3% interest mortgages decided not to move, freezing the housing market.
Two years ago, the Federal Reserve finally raised interest rates to tamp inflation. And, shipping eventually smoothed out.
Inflation recently slowed to a 2.5% reasonable annual rate. Employment is steady. With exceptions, salaries have increased at a slightly greater rate than goods. Yet, rent is still gobbling income for many. Even with better wages, food and housing prices still hurt.
Yet, importantly, America has not moved into a recession. Recession can be much more painful than inflation. People have mostly kept their jobs.
For more than three years, our economy has been both boom and bust. We cannot pin its positive or negative attributes on Biden nor Trump because the economy is much more complex than a simple binary choice. The economy will always have to be cared for and corrected in some way.
That is the message Harris did not offer in the debate.
What I’m suggesting is: understand your economic present, but vote for your economic future.
Federal and local governments are working to incentivize more affordable housing. Harris is planning to help first-time homebuyers with down payments.
Trump can lay blame, but he cannot solve the housing problem through vitriol, or as he suggests, by selling federal land to developers. That’s just more money in big money’s pockets at the expense of the American public — and the environment.
The economy is not an either/or. It’s an intricate machine that needs constant managing. Its current management has saved us from a recession. You have to give Biden and Harris credit for that.
Kelli Lundgren lives in Kaanapali and has owned a short-term vacation rental for 13 years on Maui’s south shore.
