The state House and Senate will welcome at least 11 new faces for the next legislative session, even before the Nov. 5 general election, which could result in more incumbent upsets.

No matter what happens in November, the Legislature continues to see a quiet changing of the guard as legislators retire, leave for other opportunities or, unfortunately, die, as in the case of Rep. Mark Nakashima, (D, Hamakua-Hilo).

He was running unopposed and assured of reelection to represent House District 1 again after first being elected in 2008. Following Nakashima’s death on July 11 at age 61, Gov. Josh Green announced on Aug. 30 that he appointed Matthias Kusch, a retired Hawaii County Fire Department battalion chief, to replace Nakashima.

Green’s office described Kusch as a coffee and citrus farmer, affordable housing advocate, president of Hilo Bayfront Trails, and a Windward Planning Commission member who maintains “a variety of other business and volunteer ventures.”

All 51 House seats and 13 of 25 Senate seats are up this year.

The turnover underscores the vulnerability of incumbents in districts where only a few hundred votes can determine the difference between victory and defeat, especially in a state with a history of voter apathy.

The result this election year: “There’s a lot of churn,” said Colin Moore, who teaches public policy at the University of Hawaii and serves as associate professor at the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization.

Among the newcomers when the next legislative session begins in January will be former Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto, who defeated House Speaker Scott Saiki (D, Ala Moana-Kakaako-Downtown) in her third run to represent House District 25.

Iwamoto’s victory also triggered a leadership vacuum in the House, which Democrats will figure out among the survivors of the general election.

Iwamoto beat Saiki by 256 votes — 2,668 for Iwamoto compared with 2,412 for the incumbent. She has no opponent in November so won the seat outright in the August primary.

“There will be a lot of new faces and we’ll also have a new speaker,” Moore said.

There has been plenty of talk — but no action — on persistent proposals for the Legislature to impose term limits on itself, unlike every other elected body in Hawaii.

The recommendation was among a slate of proposals made by the Commission to Improve Standards of Conduct that Saiki created after former state Senate Majority Leader J. Kalani English and then-state Rep. Ty J.K. Cullen pleaded guilty in 2022 to felony bribery charges to promote and kill legislation to benefit a Hawaii company.

Without term limits for state representatives and senators, Moore said the ongoing turnover — whether by retirement or the will of voters — is good for Hawaii governance and democracy.

“Absolutely this is actually what you want to see,” Moore said. “I don’t think it’s healthy to have incumbents in their seat for decades and decades.”

Departures open seats

On the final day of the last legislative session in May, the House and Senate bid aloha to five veteran legislators who had decades of combined service: Sen. Maile Shimabukuro (D, Nanakuli-Waianae-Makaha) and Reps. Richard Onishi, (D, Hilo); Cedric Gates (D, Waianae-Makaha); Bert Kobayashi (D, Kahala-Kaimuki-Kapahulu) and Scott Nishimoto (D, Moiliili-McCully).

Their departures helped create vacancies in the Legislature that will continue to add fresh energy after the 2023 legislative session saw the House welcome a record 16 freshmen, followed by Green filling two vacancies with then-new Reps. Luke A. Evslin (D, Wailua-Lihue) and Trish La Chica (D, Waipio-­Mililani).

This year Green added two more appointments: Reps. May Besario Mizuno (D, Kamehameha Heights-­Kalihi Valley) and Tyson K. Miyake (D, Wailuku-Waikapu).

Mizuno was appointed by Green to represent House District 29 after he picked Mizuno’s husband, then-Rep. John Mizuno, to serve as the state’s homeless coordinator. But in last month’s Democratic Party primary election, Ikaika Hussey beat Mizuno by 629 votes — 1,601 for Hussey compared with 981 for Mizuno.

Now Hussey faces Republican Carole Kaapu in the general election.

Shirley Ann Templo also beat an incumbent — Rep. Sonny Ganaden (D, Kalihi-­Kalihi Kai-Hickam Village) — to represent the House District 30 seat. Templo won with just 757 votes compared with 708 for Ganaden.

She now goes up against Republican P.M. Azinga in the general.

State Rep. Natalia Hussey-­Burdick (D, Kailua-­Kaneohe Bay) also lost her reelection bid in the Democratic Primary, to Kailua Neighborhood Board member Mike Lee, to represent House District 50.

Lee won by 1,065 votes — 3,597 for Lee compared to 2,532 for Hussey-Burdick.

Lee now faces Republican Timothy Connelly to represent a district that often skews Republican.

GOP gains in West Oahu

Someone new also will represent Waianae in the Senate after Shimabukuro left.

Gates gave up what was considered a safe House District 45 seat to run for Shimabukuro’s Senate District 22 seat. Gates won his Senate primary with 1,807 votes and in November faces Samantha Decorte, who won the Republican primary with 1,586 votes.

Gates’ general election race to replace Shimabukuro could be close to represent the leeward side of Oahu that continues to elect Republicans in both the Legislature and Honolulu City Council, in a state otherwise dominated by Democrats.

Moore called Senate District 22 “one of these West Side seats that’s really competitive. It’s one of these purple-to-red districts. It’s going to be a squeaker.”

In the election to fill Gates’ former House seat, Desire Desoto won the Democratic primary with 976 votes and now faces Chris Muraoka in November after Muraoka won the Republican primary with 631 votes.

There are currently six Republicans in the House and two in the Senate, and the Senate District 22 race represents “probably the best chance for a Republican pickup this cycle,” Moore said. “This will be extremely close. That’s an area that’s been trending Republican. So there’s a very good chance for Decorte to win.”

At the same time, three House Republicans and Republican Sen. Brenton Awa (R, Kaneohe-Laie-Mokuleia) face tough reelections in November.

Awa won his Senate District 23 Republican primary with 2,314 votes. His Democratic challenger, Ben Shafer, won his primary with 3,359 votes. Both are Native Hawaiians but could not be more different while running to represent a vastly diverse rural area of Oahu, Moore said.

Awa remains fiercely independent and does not accept campaign contributions. Shafer, a farmer, has endorsements from unions representing teachers and nurses and “is deeply connected,” Moore said.

Awa, at the same time, “takes unusual positions and won’t campaign. It’s going to be a real unpredictable race. These are unconventional candidates, and their campaigns are going to be based on whose network turns out. Is it going to be Kaneohe Democrats and North Shore progressives for Shafer, or do they turn out Mormons in Laie and more conservative folks in that center part of the district?”

Meanwhile, Rep. David Alcos III (R, Ocean Pointe-Barbers Point) won his Republican primary with 1,183 votes. His Democratic opponent in November, Navy veteran John Clark III, won his primary with 1,452 votes.

Moore called Clark “a sleeper” and Alcos “vulnerable.”

“Even relatively unknown John Clark got more votes than Alcos” in their respective primaries, Moore said. At the same time, he called the House District 41 seat “not overwhelmingly Democratic.”

Close races expected

Rep. Elijah Pierick (R, Royal Kunia-Waipahu-­Honouliuli) won his primary reelection bid to represent House District 39 with 1,151 votes and now faces Corey Rosenlee, the former head of the powerful Hawaii State Teachers Association, who won his Democratic primary with 1,763 votes.

“Pierick beat Rosenlee in 2022 by 704 votes,” Moore said. “Rosenlee fits the profile of a Hawaii Democrat: a teacher with labor connections. Pierick draws strength from evangelicals and this is a place where those churches have a lot of influence. So this is a classic Hawaii labor candidate against a candidate who draws support from evangelicals. They can turn out voters like the unions can.”

Rep. Diamond Garcia (R, Ewa-Kapolei) won his Republican primary with 1,020 votes and now faces a November challenge from Anthony Paris, who won the Democratic Party primary with 1,074 votes to represent House District 42.

Moore called Garcia “a very talented, young politician … and a clear conservative” who represents “a new crop of Republicans.” But Paris, Moore said, “has lots of endorsements, went to MIT and is a lawyer, farmer and fisherman. This is going to be another close, competitive race.”

Overall, Moore said, “This could be a banner year for Hawaii Republicans. And it will definitely be interesting with so many new, fresh faces if Republicans pick up another Senate and House seat. But for all the Republican incumbents, there’s a possibility they could lose.”

Iwamoto’s defeat of Saiki means the House also will see new leadership after Democrats who dominate the House elect their next speaker.

One of the leading candidates will be House Majority Leader Nadine Nakamura, (D, Hanalei-­Princeville-Kapaa). Nakamura previously told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that she’s interested in the speakership but first has to win reelection in November.

“I do have a general election,” she said after Saiki lost. “I need to get through that.”