Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Wednesday, November 13, 2024 83° Today's Paper


Oahu housing market steady ahead of possible demand increase

JAMM AQUINO / JAQUINO@STARADVERTISER.COM
                                Construction cranes are seen in the Honolulu skyline with Diamond Head visible at left on Thursday.

JAMM AQUINO / JAQUINO@STARADVERTISER.COM

Construction cranes are seen in the Honolulu skyline with Diamond Head visible at left on Thursday.

Oahu’s housing market was pretty stable in August, displaying a mix of small positive and negative changes compared with a year earlier.

According to data released Friday by the Honolulu Board of Realtors, sales and prices ticked up for single-­family homes and down for condominiums.

There were 253 single-­family home sales in August, just one more than a year before, and the median sale price edged 1.1% higher to $1,122,000 from $1,110,000.

For condos the number of sales in August slipped 5% to 401 from 422 a year earlier as the median sale price dipped 2.9% to $500,000 from $515,000.

The activity in August was more or less in line with a trend this year where some easing of high interest rates has helped drive modestly higher sales for single-family homes while spikes in insurance for many condo building complexes has dampened sales for multifamily housing units.

“There are several factors influencing our market, such as fluctuating interest rates and condo insurance,” Fran Gendrano, president of the Honolulu Board of Realtors and principal broker at KFG Properties Inc., said in a statement accompanying the trade association’s report.

This year through August, single-family home sale volume is up 7.5%, and the median price has risen 4.8% to $1,100,000 from $1,050,000 over the same period in 2023.

In the condo market during the first eight months of this year, sale volume is down 6%, and the median price edged 1.2% higher to $508,000 from $502,000 compared with the same span in 2023.

The median sale price is a point at which half the sales were for a higher price and half were for a lower price.

Another trend occurring in Oahu’s housing market this year has been rising inventory of homes available for purchase. At the end of August, there were 760 active single-family home listings and 1,879 active condo listings. Those figures are up by 27.1% and 64%, respectively, from a year ago.

Yet because buyer demand isn’t stronger, the market is still tending to favor sellers and higher prices, based on how many months it would take to exhaust supply if no more inventory came on the market.

This metric, known as months of remaining inventory, in August was 3.4 months for single-family homes and 5.1 months for condos.

Chad Takesue, chief sales officer for local brokerage firm Locations, noted in a company report published Friday that the inventory measure for condos is moving toward a balanced market that favors neither buyers nor sellers.

Months of remaining inventory for condos was 2.8 a year earlier and 1.8 two years ago. For single-family homes the figure was 2.7 a year ago and 1.7 two years ago.

Market observers expect that buyer demand could pick up later this year if interest rates decline further.

The national 30-year average fixed mortgage rate was 6.35% this week, down from 7.12% a year earlier and significantly below a 23-year high of 7.79% in October, according to mortgage firm Freddie Mac. The rate has mostly hovered around 7% this year — more than double what it was just three years ago.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate later this month for the first time in four years, with economists predicting a quarter-point or half-point decrease possibly followed by more later. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision Sept. 18. A reduction would lower rates for borrowers and make purchasing a home more affordable.

“Mortgage interest rates are below 6.5% and will likely continue to edge slightly lower over the next several months,” Takesue said in the Locations report. “As rates come down, we’re expecting to see an increase in demand, particularly among first-time homebuyers.”

If an increase in demand is generated by lower interest rates, it could take a couple of months or so to show up in sales data. That’s because sales reported by the Board of Realtors represent completed transactions for previously owned homes in a given month stemming from purchase contracts signed one to three months prior.

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