Democratic state representatives knew changes were coming to House leadership as soon as the first printout of election returns showed House Speaker Scott Saiki trailing in his party primary against Kim Coco Iwamoto to represent parts of downtown, Ala Moana and Kakaako.
By the time all the votes were counted, Saiki lost to Iwamoto by just 290 votes — 2,649 for Iwamoto compared with 2,359 for Saiki in Saturday’s election.
Members of Saiki’s House leadership team were buzzing over the weekend about who will replace Saiki to lead the House through a series of nonsexy but nevertheless immensely costly issues that will challenge the Legislature in the 2025 session, including controlling insurance costs; paying the state’s share of a $4.037 billion settlement to resolve lawsuits following 2023’s Maui wildfires: making up for historic tax cuts for island residents that were passed last session; and figuring out how best — and how much — to charge tourists to help offset their impacts on Hawaii’s environment and further address climate change.
“There’s been conversations that have taken place ever since the first printout,” said state Rep. David Tarnas, chair of the House Committee on Judiciary and Hawaiian Affairs.
Asked whether any of his House colleagues began lobbying over the weekend to replace Saiki, Tarnas demurred and said that there have been “open and very candid conversations. Everyone is putting their viewpoint forward, and we are quickly finding consensus.”
As a result, Tarnas expects that a vote for the next speaker will happen “without drama.”
State Rep. Nadine Nakamura (D, Hanalei-Princeville- Kapaa) serves as House majority leader, and told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Sunday that she would be interested in replacing Saiki.
“I’m open to that opportunity if the members would like to support me,” Nakamura said.
First she has to win election against Republican David Moranz on Nov. 5.
“I do have a general election,” Nakamura said. “I need to get through that.”
The next speaker will have to win a majority of the House Democrats who currently comprise 45 seats in the 51-member House.
Nakamura said the Democratic caucus represents diverse political philosophies from younger and older representatives from a range of backgrounds.
“The freshman class had many younger legislators, with a whole range of experiences, from the very liberal to the pretty conservative,” she said. “It’s real mixture of ideas and perspectives and lived experiences.”
Until a speaker is elected, Tarnas said that Saiki “continues to be our leader and will continue to lead us.”
Tarnas called Saiki’s impending departure “profound. He’s a great leader. And for me it’s a personal loss. He’s a great guy and he’s a friend.”
There is no Republican candidate for the House 25 seat, so Iwamoto won outright Saturday.
Neither Iwamoto nor Saiki responded to requests for comment Sunday.
Saiki issued a statement that did not address a new speaker:
“We extend a warm mahalo to all of our supporters, our friends, and the voters of District 25 that took the time to vote this Primary Election,” Saiki said in the statement. “This is an essential part of the Democratic process. We met with thousands of people in our community and heard their ideas and excitement for the future.
“I believe the community recognizes our team’s hard work and commitment and I’m proud of what we accomplished in delivering funding for our schools, improving traffic safety, passing the largest income tax break in history, and addressing the condo insurance crisis. To serve House District 25 has been the honor of a lifetime, and I again want to say mahalo for all of the support.”
Iwamoto’s victory over Saiki — in their third showdown — represented “the biggest” electoral surprise to come out of Saturday night’s election results, said Colin Moore, who teaches public policy at the University of Hawaii and serves as associate professor at the University of Hawaii Economic Resource.
Political analyst Neal Milner said, “The real news right now is there will be a (House leadership) vacuum and some jockeying around going on.”
Voters also showed little aloha for Democratic candidates with well-known names, voting against Clayton Hee, a former member of the state Senate, House and Office of Hawaiian Affairs to represent Kaneohe, Laie and Mokuleia in the Senate; Ken Inouye, son of legendary U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, who made his first run at political office to represent Waipio- Mililani in the House; and Rep. May Mizuno, who also was making her first campaign after Gov. Josh Green appointed Mizuno to replace her husband, John Mizuno, to represent Kamehameha Heights and Kalihi Valley after Green appointed John Mizuno as the state’s homeless coordinator.
“Elections in Hawaii are won door to door,” Moore said. “The through line is that name alone doesn’t guarantee you a win.”
Other than Saiki’s loss, Moore had predicted other things that happened this primary, specifically a landslide victory by Mayor Rick Blangiardi, who won outright with 70.7% of the vote without having to go to a Nov. 5 runoff election; and low voter turnout because of a variety of factors including lackluster challenges to incumbents, or no challengers at all.
There also is no election for governor or lieutenant governor this year.
As a result, only 32.1% of Hawaii’s 839,168 registered voters cast 269,912 ballots. Once again, those who bothered to vote did so overwhelmingly by mail-in ballots: 264,929, compared with just 4,983 people who voted in person.
“That’s the fat, generous way of measuring turnout,” Milner said. “Unlike other places, we measure it here officially by registered voters as opposed to potential voters.”
Both Milner and Moore expect voter turnout in Hawaii to increase in the Nov. 5 presidential election that will pit Vice President Kamala Harris against former President Donald Trump.
“It’ll jump in November,” Milner said. “But probably we’re still going to be a very low-turnout state.”
