“This is a fun race.”

That succinct analysis of the nonpartisan primary election race for Hawaii County mayor is courtesy of Colin Moore, a University of Hawaii political scientist.

The seasoned political observer thinks the top two vote-getters in the seven- person race on Primary Election Day, Aug. 10, will be Mayor Mitch Roth and first-time candidate Kimo Alameda.

“I’m certain, for example, that Roth isn’t going to win on primary night,” Moore said.

Asked whether Alameda — former CEO of Bay Clinic Health Center and executive of the county’s Office of Aging under former Mayors Harry Kim and the late Billy Kenoi — could take the primary outright, Moore replied, “Unless I’m missing something and Roth’s support has entirely collapsed — and it doesn’t look like that’s the case — I think we’re likely to see them both move forward.”

Unless a candidate receives 50% plus one vote in a primary race, the top two vote recipients will advance to the general election on Nov. 5.

Roth, who turns 60 today, seeks reelection without the backing of the two largest public worker unions, the Hawaii Government Employees Association and United Public Workers. Both are endorsing Alameda because Roth opposed, for budgetary reasons, COVID-19 hazard pay for county workers. Also endorsing Alameda is the State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers.

Roth does, however, have the endorsements of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, Laborers’ International, International Union of Operating Engineers, and the Plumbers and Pipefitters.

Roth also has the best birthday gift a politician could ask for: the largest campaign war chest.

As of June 30, Roth had received $226,513 in campaign contributions and had spent $132,350.26, according to his report to the state Campaign Spending Commission. He received the maximum contributions allowed, $4,000, from11 donors — mostly from off-island, with some from out of state.

A loophole in the law prohibiting construction contractors from making political contributions allows officers, owners, employees and family members of those companies to donate as individuals. Three of Roth’s $4,000 donors are Nan Chul Shin, who owns Nan Inc., the state’s largest locally owned construction firm; Mariko K. Shin, Nan Shin’s wife; and Fooney E. Freestone, Nan Inc. president.

In addition, four of Roth’s $4,000 donors are from California. Of those, three are real estate developers.

“Incumbents always have an advantage because people know who they are, and in these nonpartisan races they’re always starting ahead,” Moore said. “If this were in Honolulu, I would say money is just crucial, but my sense is that it’s not quite as crucial on the Big Island. I’m thinking about Harry Kim and that he would only accept $10 contributions. The power of networks can compensate for a lack of money. That’s not to say money isn’t important.”

According to Moore, Roth’s fundraising ability is critical to his chances in this race.

“Losing the public-sector unions is a serious blow to any candidate in Hawaii because in the primary I think they, more than any other group, can turn their people out — and there’s a lot of them,” he said. “That doesn’t mean necessarily that union workers turn out lockstep and vote for whomever their union endorsed. But I think on balance they do.”

In addition to the publicsector union support, the 55-year-old Alameda has substantial campaign coffers of his own. He reported contributions of $140,252.32 and expenditures of $106,735.84 through June 30.

His two $4,000 contributions are from the ironworkers union and James Striker, owner of Striker Construction in Honolulu.

Big Island automobile dealer Dave De Luz contributed $3,500, while retired business consultant Michael Nekoba and Honolulu retiree Ming Shan Huang are $3,000 donors. Randy Kurohara, owner of Creative Arts Hawaii, donated $2,630, while the UPW and Toby Taniguchi, president and chief operating officer of KTA Super Stores, are $2,000 donors.

Taniguchi, it should be noted, also gave $2,000 to Roth.

Alameda has garnered a large number of what Moore termed “midlevel” contributions, donations between $100 and $1,000. Familiar names on that list include state Sen. Dru Kanuha, contractor Ivan Mochida, Realtor Hank Correa Jr. and HMSA CEO Mark Mugiishi.

Moore described Alameda as “clearly a charismatic guy.”

“He has that Billy Kenoi kind of energy. He seems to connect with people. He’s really rooted in the Big Island,” Moore said. “Judging from the support he has from the community, he’s been able to use his network. He was in charge of the fentanyl task force, right? That’s a way to build goodwill. And because he hasn’t held (an elected) position before, he doesn’t have a lot of baggage or a record one can run against. And that gives him an opportunity to shape his plans and policies without having to confront unpopular decisions he’s had to make as a result of being an elected official.

“This is totally anecdotal, but I was in Hilo in June. I was driving around, and there was a big sign-waving operation for Alameda, and this was June. So, I kind of had to reset my sense of how that race was going to shake out after that.

“And then, of course, he got those big endorsements from the public-sector unions.”

Public attention also turned Alameda’s way when his 54-year-old wife, Star, died unexpectedly May 3.

“Such a tragic loss, I think, humanizes a candidate and allows voters to connect with them more easily,” Moore said. “There’s definitely a sympathy vote factor. It would be hard to deny that.”

Another first-time candidate, Breeani Kobayashi, the 33-year-old general manager of SCP Hilo Hotel and co-owner of Keaukaha General Store, reported $48,615 raised. That, however, includes $25,000 in loans — $20,000 of her own money and another $5,000 from her mother, Kim Kimi, her partner in the Keaukaha store — all reported as forgiven. She had spent $27,244.05.

Kobayashi also is president of the nonprofit Hawaii Rise Foundation and chair of Hawaii Island United Way, and is endorsed by Kim.

Her two largest donations, $2,000 each, are from her uncle Alan Kimi, retired from the family’s hotel empire, and her boss, Kenneth Cruise, CEO of SCP Hotels.

“Kobayashi seems like a good candidate,” Moore said. “I see she got Harry Kim’s endorsement, but I would be surprised if she were able to come in second place, given the widespread support it looks like Alameda’s getting.”

Seaula “Jr.” Tupa‘i, a 44-year-old minister who was Duke Aiona’s Republican lieutenant governor running mate in 2022, reported receiving $10,591.09 and spending $11,278.73.

Tupa‘i’s largest contributor is Tim Dalhouse of Kailua-Kona, who gave $4,000. Dalhouse, CEO of PM-Pro Solutions Inc., is running as a Republican in House District 9, looking to unseat incumbent Democratic Rep. Nicole Lowen.

Moore said Tupa‘i’s candidacy for the state’s No. 2 elected position “generated a ton of name recognition for him.”

“I think he’ll do all right because he’ll get the Republican support; he’ll get the evangelical support,” Moore said. “But I doubt it’ll be good enough to get him into second place.”

The other three mayoral candidates listed on the state Elections Office’s website — Daniel Cunningham, Kavin Kahikina and Yumi Kawano — didn’t file Campaign Spending Commission reports.

“I think the smart money is on Roth and Alameda because they have the money to spend,” Moore said. “Raising money is also an indication of what level of support you have in the community, especially if you’re getting a lot of midlevel donations. I think that indicates a broad support among people who are politically active, because the people who give are the ones who, often, will tell their friends and neighbors to vote for you — especially the midlevel donations.

‘The big donations tend to be, usually, people with some kind of interest in the outcome of the election because they’re business owners or something like that, often trying to buy goodwill.”

So-called “clean election” bills — measures that would establish a comprehensive public financing system for political candidates running for state and county offices who agree to abide by campaign fundraising and expenditure guidelines — died in the past two legislative sessions.

“I’m on the record supporting the public financing for elections bill. I’ve testified in favor of it for the last two legislative sessions. I wrote a (University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization) report about it,” Moore said.

“You need money to get your message out,” he added. “We’re not opposed to spending money on campaigns, but you want to break the connection between the donor and the candidate.

“So, I think having a clean-elections bill allows everyone to compete on a level playing field, and I think it allows the candidate to spend a lot more time campaigning and a lot less time calling donors.”