On Jan. 13, 2018, the people of Hawaii thought about what to do with their last few minutes on Earth. An incoming ballistic missile warning — a false alarm — had been made plausible by an exchange of insults between then- President Donald Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un.

Without our phones buzzing with missile warnings, the threat of annihilation might appear to be mere background noise. The people of Hawaii, however, should think of the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) wargames, June 29 to Aug. 4, as navigating toward war. RIMPAC also represents the continued military occupation of Hawaii since the overthrow of the Hawaiian kingdom.

As part of the U.S.’s efforts to hold onto its position in the global economy, RIMPAC is key to showcasing its military prowess. The point of RIMPAC is to prepare for the coming war with China. The South China/West Philippine Sea is one place where the shooting war could begin. China considers it part of its territory and has fortified shoals and outcroppings there. The U.S. sends warships through the area in “Freedom of Navigation” exercises. A U.S. admiral co-wrote a novel about a nuclear war being set off there: “2034: A Novel of the Next World War.”

The U.S. seeks to make the Philippines a co-combatant by goading it to confront China. This year’s (April-May) annual joint U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercises included Australia, France and 14 observer nations. It expanded even farther toward Taiwan than in previous years.

Taiwan is another place where the U.S. confronts China. China considers Taiwan to be a province of China, and officially the U.S. recognizes “One China.” Taiwan held the seat at the United Nations until 1971, when the U.N. General Assembly voted to seat the People’s Republic of China. With President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, the U.S. recognized that there is only “One China.”

This left Taiwan in a somewhat ambig- uous status (for the U.S. ruling class). At present, only 11 countries in the world recognize Taiwan’s independence from China. Since Nixon, U.S. administrations have maintained an ambiguous stance about the (re)unification of China and Taiwan.

President Joe Biden has, however, stated on multiple occasions, that the U.S. would defend Taiwan (population 23 million) against China (pop. 1.4 billion). In May 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden vowed to do more for Taiwan militarily than he was willing to do for Ukraine.

The people of Taiwan might take note of how U.S. and its NATO allies’ military support for Ukraine has worked out. Over a half-million Ukrainian soldiers have died. Men are refusing to be conscripted. Russia has won this war of attrition because it is a more populous country with an industrial base that is churning out weapons. Some $61 billion more of U.S. taxpayer money won’t rescue Ukraine. (This is in the same aid package with $15 billion more in military aid to Israel and $9 billion more for the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan.)

War between the U.S. and China could lead to thousands of casualties per day.

A strike by an aircraft carrier killer missile might lead to 5,000 casualties. In Iran’s retaliatory strike on April 13, hypersonic missiles hit an Israeli airbase, one that was protected by the U.S.’s best defensive capabilities. China tested a boost-glide hypersonic missile in August 2021. The risk of escalation to nuclear war is high.

On the day of the 2018 false missile alert, we in Hawaii thought to ourselves, “Only a few more minutes left to live.” It brought home to many that we need to work harder for peace.

Cancel RIMPAC!

Seiji Yamada and Richard Rothschiller are members of the Hawaii Committee for Human Rights in the Philippines.