Consider the implications of Maui Mayor Richard Bissen’s measure to end 7,000 legal short-term rentals (STRs) on Maui’s West Side by July 1, 2025, and in the island’s entirety by Jan. 1, 2026.

Immediately, Maui will see a severe reduction in real property, transient and excise taxes. A recent study by the Travel Technology Association projected between a $53.3 to $91.8 million drop. Tourism, also, will likely fall further below Maui’s current 30% reduction due to fewer accommodations.

Will vacationers book Maui hotels instead? Some, but likely not many. High nightly hotel rates with a lack of kitchens, extra bedrooms, laundry and beach gear, and absurd fees for parking a car, etc., will spur a parent to book their family vacation on another Hawaiian island, one that has yet to enact Hawaii Governor Josh Green’s new SB2919 law giving counties approval to eliminate legal vacation rentals.

Will owners of Maui’s short-term rentals convert to long-term? Perhaps some. But many owners own in order to live some months on Maui: another source of tax revenue. Thus, it’s not possible to rent their condos for long-term use. Many STR owners will leave their condos vacant when off island.

The HOA fees for many of West Maui’s currently permitted STRs are $1,000 to $1,600 per month. These fees will need to be covered in monthly long-term rental rates. Can local families afford this?

Short-term condo owners could sell. But can residents afford to buy? Sales prices may decrease; favorable to buyers. Yet the $,1000 to $1,600 a month HOA fee still applies. Plus, assessments will be collected from West Maui’s many shoreline condo owners being threatened by ocean-rise. Buyers will have to anticipate these expenses.

Regarding affordable housing: Maui County stifled development before the August 2023 fire. Developers pleaded, too, that taxpayers should subsidize this housing. Thus, very few desperately-needed projects ever moved forward.

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Particularly troubling, the owners of the recently built four-story Lahaina affordable apartment building that burned down on Aug. 8 told the county they were underinsured, collecting only $40 million to rebuild. They’re asking for $36 million from Maui County taxpayers to rebuild. Government money is seeping away. Tourist dollars are seeping away.

A manageable balance of tourism is needed on all Hawaiian Islands. Not too much, not too little. Yet, if Maui tourism decreases 50% versus the current 30%, there will be more layoffs.

Maui County is currently attempting to increase the remainder of resident’s property and other taxes to make government ends meet. The residential exodus that began before the fire — and especially since the fire — will continue its slippery slope.

I witnessed hotel lobbyists testify in support of the governor’s bill to eliminate STRs. The ban works brilliantly for hotels, eliminating much of their competition. And, politicians can put a check on their scorecards for finding housing solutions a few years out. Yet, local workers, including property managers and cleaners, will lose.

It is true rents in West Maui have absurdly sky- rocketed in price. Insurance companies are paying ludicrous amounts to cover one to two years of rent. FEMA is paying exorbitant money to house our families. Landlords are finding loopholes to kick out tenants and rent to the highest bidder. (One-year leases have expired with renters booted.) A musical-chairs, if you will. Somebody always ends up without a chair. In Lahaina’s case, 2,000 people.

When insurance money runs out, FEMA departs, and officials finally build the promoted 400 affordable dwellings on the West Side, that’s when astronomical rents will reduce.

A better two-year focus: How about helping residents and landlords access affordable loans to rebuild? Help them access labor and material building costs without price gouging?

Will Mayor Bissen’s decree banning short-term rentals work? To me, the economics say it will backfire.

Kauai, Hawaii, Oahu, Florida, San Diego: these are locations many vacationers will choose over Maui using the click of an Airbnb button. And Maui’s economy will go with them.

Kelli Lundgren lives in Kaanapali and has owned a short-term vacation rental for 13 years on Maui’s south shore. Her condo is currently being used by a family displaced by the Lahaina fire.