Hawaii auto sales, stymied by the lingering effects of the Aug. 8 Maui wildfires, are expected to accelerate 3.7% this year amid the possibility of lower income rates in the upcoming months, falling vehicle prices and strong wage gains.
Alternative powertrain vehicles likely will lead the charge as the state continues its transition away from fossil fuels.
Battery electric vehicle registrations in the state rose 11% in the first quarter from the year-earlier period as the market share of BEVs among all vehicles sold in Hawaii reached a record 15%, according to a recent report from Hawaii Auto Outlook. Tesla’s share of the BEV market was 60.5% in the first quarter, with the Tesla Y the automaker’s most popular brand.
Hybrid vehicles encompassed 11.2% of the market share in the first quarter; plug-in hybrids’ market share was 2.2%.
New-vehicle registrations for all vehicles declined 2.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier but are anticipated to hit 48,300 this year. That would be up from 46,566 in 2023 and up from 47,769 in 2022. In 2021, registrations topped 50,000 at 54,591.
“Pent-up demand is still significant and the state labor market is recovering,” Jeffrey Foltz, editor of Hawaii Auto Outlook, wrote in the quarterly report that is produced for the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association. “Vehicle affordability is still a concern, but should improve as the year progresses. Barring any unforeseen negative shocks, we think the new vehicle market should move higher in 2024.”
New-vehicle registrations can be representative of auto sales, but the two don’t always align because a buyer can purchase a vehicle one month and register it in another. The data is based on county Department of Motor Vehicles registrations.
It was a mixed first quarter among the islands as registrations plunged 25.7% on Kauai and declined 7.9% on Hawaii island but advanced 3% on Maui and inched up 0.4% on Oahu.
Toyota was the bestselling brand in the first quarter with a 28.4% market share, followed by Honda at 11.6%, Tesla at 9.1%, Ford at 6.9% and Nissan at 5.4%.
The market share for the top-selling models in the state last quarter were Toyota Tacoma, 7.3%; Tesla Model Y, 5.6%; Toyota 4Runner, 4.5%; Toyota RAV4, 4.3%; and Toyota Corolla, 3.9%.
Light trucks — which include vans, SUVs and pickups — maintained their large lead over cars with a 76% market share versus 24% for cars. Consumers continue to opt for larger vehicles because of more visibility, additional room for storage and stable gas prices.
1Q 2024 1Q 2023 PERCENT CHANGE
Hawaii island 1,651 1,792 -7.9%
Kauai 513 690 -25.7%
Maui 1,428 1,386 3.0%
Oahu 7,849 7,814 0.4%
Total 11,441 11,682 -2.1%
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New-vehicle registrations (data to help you with the fever line)
2021 54,591
2022 47,769
2023 46,566
2024 Forecast 48,300
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MARKET SHARE
Top-selling brands in Hawaii in 1Q 2024:
Toyota 28.4%
Honda 11.6%
Tesla 9.1%
Ford 6.9%
Nissan 5.4%
Kia 5.2%
Subaru 5.1%
Lexus 4.7%
Chevrolet 4.2%
BMW 3.6%
Source: Experian Automotive
