China’s latest aircraft carrier, Fujian (CV-18), has completed its first sea trials, to much domestic and international media fanfare. Characteristically, China’s media has hyped its capabilities while some Western commentators have noted its shortcomings. By all accounts, though, the engineering, propulsion and systems tests went well, suggesting that the next more comprehensive trials will begin soon.
Most commentators agree that Fujian, China’s first indigenously designed and “catapult-assisted takeoff and arrested recovery” aircraft carrier, marks a major step forward in China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, expansion and modernization program. As such, much has been made of its future capabilities versus that of the U.S. and most other navies’ aircraft carriers. However, such one-on-one comparisons rarely reflect how the respective carriers are likely to be employed by their respective fleets.
The U.S. Navy has global commitments beyond the Pacific while Beijing’s naval strategy centers on denying hostile forces access to its “near seas” or as the Western analysts describe them, the waters between China’s coast and the 1st Island Chain (Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia and East Timor). Within those waters, China’s Navy will enjoy the support of land-based air power and China’s anti-ship ballistic missile forces. Although China’s efforts to develop integrated joint air, missile and naval forces are in the early stages, they are getting better and hope to master those operations within the next few years, perhaps as the Fujian becomes fully operational on or about 2026.
Fujian’s role in that emerging doctrine will be to extend that air support to PLAN forays to intercept foreign (U.S. and its allied) assistance trying to reach Taipei during a Sino-Taiwan conflict. It will also add a new axis of attack to any air and missile campaign directed at the island state.
In that role, it will enjoy the same rocket force support as it will in the near seas. China’s air force may well reinforce any naval strikes with air-launched anti-ship cruise and hypersonic missiles. None of that makes Fujian or China’s military omnipotent, but it does weigh against measuring force calculations and operations on individual ship-to-ship comparisons.
The Fujian’s electromagnetic aircraft launch system does represent a major technical advancement, and its air wing will include the tanking and airborne early warning and control system aircraft that its predecessors lack. That will enable the Fujian to launch its strikes from longer ranges or with greater ordnance loads; and direct its operations and those of its accompanying strike group more effectively.
Thus, the Fujian reflects a trend that portends a coming challenge that the United States cannot ignore. Its future sea trials and subsequent operations will serve as experiments to refine PLAN plans for its aircraft carrier force. The coming Type 004 aircraft carrier and the PLAN’s future aircraft carrier construction choices and force structure will indicate China’s maritime goals and intentions. Building nuclear carriers and a supporting overseas base structure will signal China’s naval ambitions extend far beyond the near seas. Those carriers’ combat capabilities and strategic mobility will match our Navy carriers and be capable of challenging U.S. naval power in the Central Pacific — and other waters far from U.S. soil.
Carl O. Schuster, a retired U.S. Navy captain, recently retired from teaching at Hawaii Pacific University’s Diplomacy and Military Studies program.
