Oahu’s housing market may be beginning to rebound from a long downward market cycle.
Data from sales of previously owned homes in January shows a gain in volume for the first time in two years for single-family houses and 19 months for condominiums.
The Honolulu Board of Realtors data released Tuesday also shows year-over-year gains for median sale prices in January after declines during almost all of 2023 for single-family houses and a mix of ups and downs last year for condos.
“This is hopeful after 2023 cooled off, primarily due to high interest rates,” said Erin Evans, broker in charge and owner of Century 21
Island Homes.
The number of single-family home sales jumped 22.7% to 184 in January from 150 in the same month in 2023. The gain for condo sales volume was 6.2% with 292 sales, compared with 275 in the same period.
For all of 2023, single-family home sales fell 26%
after a 23% decline the year before. Condo sale volume slumped 28% in 2023 after a 12% decline the year before.
Median price gains in January were relatively small, with a 5.3% increase for
single-family homes to $1,021,016 in January from $970,000 a year earlier, and a 1.5% increase for condos to $502,500 from $495,000.
Peaks for median sale prices in a single month are many months old. The record for single-family homes was $1,153,500 in May 2022. The record for condos was $536,000 in March 2023.
The median price is a point at which half the sales were at a higher price and half at a lower price.
It remains to be seen whether sales and price gains will continue in the coming months or if January represents just a brief departure from a longer down cycle.
The January sales gains coincide with a decrease in average mortgage interest rates, which for a fixed-rate 30-year loan had risen from about 3% in early 2022 to nearly 7.8% in October before trailing back down to about 6.6% last week, according to data from mortgage buyer Freddie Mac.
Sales in the Honolulu Board of Realtors report
reflect transactions that closed in January and typically were agreed upon one to three months earlier.
Evans of Century 21 Island Homes said there are industry expectations for three to five interest rate
reductions by the Federal Reserve this year, and mortgage rates falling into the 5% range during the second half of this year, which bode well for the local housing market.
“As mortgage rates ease, we expect to see many buyers and sellers who pulled out of the market last year test the waters again,” Chad Takesue, chief operating officer of local brokerage firm Locations, said in a company report released
Monday.
Takesue also said buyers have more inventory of homes listed for sale to choose from compared with a year ago, which helps produce more sales.
The Locations report said the number of homes on the market at the end of January was about 10% more than a year earlier, at about 650 for single-family houses and about 1,400 for condos, though these figures remain near historic lows.
Relatively low inventory has helped produce competition among buyers and support prices in what Locations still considers a seller’s market.
“A low supply of homes for sale, particularly
entry-level homes, coupled with strong demand from
local and offshore buyers, results in continued competitive market conditions,” the Locations report said.
The Honolulu Board of Realtors report noted that inventory of Oahu homes for sale at the end of January was 25% lower than in January 2020, before the coronavirus pandemic.
“New listings mean new opportunities for buyers at all price points,” Fran Gendrano, president of the
Honolulu Board of Realtors and principal broker at KFG Properties Inc., said in the trade association report. “However, Oahu’s housing market still faces the persistent challenge of low inventory, which keeps our housing prices elevated
despite cautious market
activity.”
