GUILD Consulting, a Honolulu-based management consulting firm, presents its trends and predictions for 2024:

Out-migration acceleration. The median Hawaii single-family house price exceeds $1 million, the cost of living in Hawaii continues to rise, and the number of ALICE (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed) households climbs higher.

The percentage of Hawaii households able to retain enough income with at least one employed member and remain above the ALICE threshold to meet basic food, childcare, housing and health care needs will drop below 50%. The Aloha United Way annual Household Survival Budget for a four-person family living in Hawaii will rise from $104,052 to over $111,000. The Lahaina firestorm disaster will push the net loss of Hawaii residents 30% higher than total emigration during 2023.

Tech in-migration. Hundreds of employees of top Silicon Valley technology firms will continue to live in Hawaii, retaining six-figure salaries while working remotely. The state will attract even more software engineers from Alphabet, Facebook and elsewhere, despite tech CEOs issuing back-to-office employee mandates. Hawaii state government will overlook exploring how to leverage and link this knowledge community to local startups, education and training.

Interest in agriculture picks up. The state continues to spend only 0.3% of its overall budget on agriculture, additional federal grant monies will flow to in-state agri-producers, and the mean Hawaii farmer age will drop below 60 as younger locals (and mainland transplants) begin farming or adopt farming practices based on self-sustaining lifestyles. Maui will lead the way, through the first county-level department of agriculture in the state, toward achieving demonstrable food security in Hawaii.

Neighborhood quality of life rebounds. Overtourism at popular hotspots will resume, but the state and counties will recognize the need to mitigate visitor-neighbor clashes. Affected neighborhoods — such as Koko Head, Hana and Waimea — will look to Kauai’s Haena State Park model of community-nonprofit partnerships, and hire local residents to address cultural tourism and provide visitor management. The shift from destination marketing to tourism management and stewardship will be felt by residents and visitors alike.

Government declines to new lows. With a lack of strategic direction, poor succession planning and numerous unfilled vacancies, state and county governments will provide even fewer services, frustrating taxpayers to a boiling point. Residents will vent about the time it takes to secure minor permits due to government red tape — and services will not improve to address the myriad permits needed for new affordable housing.

Infrastructure issues. Steeper-than-projected decreases in tourism spending prevent state tax revenues from meeting projections. Cuts to state and county maintenance budgets preclude repair of deteriorating roads and public buildings, leading to accidents, injuries and increased liabilities. Tourists and residents alike will complain about bad experiences everywhere.

Kanaka maoli resurgence. Native Hawaiians will make headway during 2024 across Hawaiian homestead land distribution, education and employment opportunities. Native Hawaiian leaders will contribute fresh (and culturally rooted) ideas to ongoing debates about Hawaiian language immersion, affordable housing, environment protection and agriculture. Hawaii governance will increasingly reflect the kanaka maoli point of view.

Health care. Access to in-person health-care visits will become more limited as physicians and specialists continue to flee the state. Acceptance by patients of telemedicine and other technologies will gain momentum; medical providers and insurers in Hawaii will see long-term value in providing and promoting remote monitoring of chronic health conditions within the population.

Ray Tsuchiyama, Iqbal Ashraf and Kevin D. Lye are partners in GUILD Consulting (www.guild.consulting), a Hawaii-based strategy consultancy; other partners are Frank Haas, Lesley Harvey and Peter Adler. GUILD drafted the University of Hawaii “Third Decade: Findings and Recommendations for 2030” plan and the inaugural strategic plan for the new County of Maui Department of Agriculture.