Hawaii has an updated plan to reduce disaster hazard risks statewide, though it was almost entirely produced before the Aug. 8 Maui wildfire that killed at least 99 people and destroyed Lahaina town.

Yet one big change in the plan resulting from the Lahaina disaster is that wildfire catapulted to the top hazard risk in the state.

The Hawai‘i Emergency Management Agency released the recently updated State Hazard Mitigation Plan on Wednesday.

The 1,304-page document provides a “framework” to help state and county officials, along with community stakeholders, carry out projects aimed at reducing harm from wildfires, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, sea level rise, pandemics, terrorism and other hazards.

HI-EMA’s hazard mitigation plan also can influence federal funding for risk reduction work and helps counties produce similar individual plans.

“This plan is a cornerstone of the work that emergency managers do to reduce the risk and harm from known hazards,” James Barros, HI-EMA administrator, said in a statement. “The state works with the counties and the counties work with their communities to turn this plan into projects that protect life and property.”

The Federal Emergency Management Agency requires states to have an approved hazard mitigation plan in order to qualify for federal disaster assistance and mitigation grants.

Hawaii’s first such plan was produced in 2004. The latest version represents the fifth update, following prior updates in 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2018.

A draft of the newest version was submitted to FEMA for review in May, and the federal agency approved the final version Oct. 10 after Gov. Josh Green adopted the document Sept. 27.

One of the biggest changes in the new update was wildfire being deemed the highest statewide disaster risk.

In the 2018 report, climate change together with sea level rise was the top risk with a 4.6 relative risk level, followed by hurricanes with a 4.5 risk score. Wildfire received a 3.8 to tie for sixth with landslides or rockfalls, and ranked below tsunamis (4.3), earthquakes (4.2) and volcanic eruptions (4.0).

In 2013, wildfire risk wasn’t even among the top six hazards.

Rising occurrences of wildfires in Hawaii over the past decade, due in part to more frequent or persistent drought conditions as well as more fallow sugar cane and pineapple plantation land giving rise to invasive fire-prone grass species, in part led to the moderate rise in the wildfire risk score in 2018.

However, one wildfire event in late August 2018 wasn’t mentioned in the 2018 report due to timing. That event was a wind-whipped series of wildfires on Maui influenced by a distant Hurricane Lane, which caused flooding damage throughout the state. The August 2018 fires on Maui destroyed more than 20 homes and forced more than 300 people to evacuate.

Now, based largely on the amount of lost life and property from the Lahaina fire as well as the amount of warning time and speed of spreading flames incorporated into a formula, Hawaii’s wildfire risk level soared 74% in the new report to 6.6 from the 2018 level of 3.8.

The 99 deaths reported by county officials to date make the Lahaina fire the deadliest natural disaster in state history and the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century. Property losses are estimated at $5.6 billion.

Another hazard, referred to as health risks, jumped to the second-highest risk in the new report with a score of 5.6, ahead of climate change/sea level rise at 4.6 and hurricanes at 4.5. That was because of impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Barros, in an interview, said that even though many goals and mitigation projects are not in the new report in response to the Lahaina fire because of the timing of the report, such things are ongoing.

“From now until we do the next plan, there’s going to be a lot of mitigation projects resulting from this event, and a lot of mitigation funding coming to the state,” he said.

Mitigation projects identified in the report, or added later to what HI-EMA refers to as a living document, get prioritized based on the hazard risk assessment.

Projects in the 2018 report and mentioned again in the latest update include some aimed at reducing wildfire risks.

One is to reduce hazardous vegetation fuel in wildland urban interface areas. This project in the updated report is listed as being in progress.

Another project is to reduce hazardous fuels on fallow agricultural land. This one also is listed as being in progress in the new report but notes that additional land is in need of implementing fuel management.

There also is an action item in the new plan to develop more community wildfire protection plans in addition to 14 existing ones that cover about half the state. The first one was completed in 2015 and is for West Maui, which includes Lahaina.

The state’s updated hazard mitigation plan contains statistics on how many people by county are at risk from high hazards.

For Honolulu, 427,293 people could potentially be affected by wildfire, which is listed as the highest risk with a risk factor of 5.7.

Maui County also has wildfire as its highest risk with a score of 5.8 and 81,424 at risk.

On Kauai, wildfire is the second-highest concern with a 5.6 risk level and threatens 27,604 people. Health risks are deemed to be the top risk also with a 5.6 score but potentially affecting the island’s entire population of around 74,000 people, according to the report.

Hawaii island has the lowest wildfire risk by county in the updated report, with a score of 4.6 and 32,080 people at risk. The top hazards in order for Hawaii island in the new report are volcanic eruption, health risks, hurricanes and landslides or rockfalls at scores ranging from 6.2 to 5.0.

The most recent hazard mitigation plans from county emergency management agencies were produced in 2019 for Honolulu and in 2020 for the other counties.

The next state hazard mitigation plan update should be done by Sept. 27, 2028.