Demand for travel to Hawaii has fallen, especially on Maui, and travel industry experts say it’s not expected to materially recover until 2024.

Jack Richards, president and CEO of Pleasant Holidays, said travel to Hawaii was up 16.5% for 2024 before the Maui wildfires in August, and is now negative statewide.

“We are off by double digits from October to April. Recovery will build gradually over time, but we don’t believe that we’ll get back to historic levels before May or June,” he said. “Right now, demand is well below historic levels for Maui. It’s the fires, (high) prices and mixed messaging. People are unsure about coming to Hawaii.”

Some of what Richards is talking about is a continuation of what is already showing up in preliminary statistics released Monday by the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. The numbers showed that the sluggish return of visitors to Maui after the August wildfires and to the state from North America caused September arrivals and nominal spending statewide to drop year-over-year for the second month in a row.

Some 651,286 visitors came to the Hawaiian Islands in September, down 7.4% from September 2022 and moving the pre- pandemic arrivals recovery back to 88.5% from September 2019, according to DBEDT data.

Nominal visitor spending, which hasn’t been adjusted to show the relative price over time, fell 9.6% to $1.37 billion in September. However, nominal spending in September was still 10.2% higher than in September 2o19, when it was $1.25 billion.

Year-over-year September results varied across the islands, according to DBEDT data. Visitors to Oahu in September rose 12.5% to 433,209, while nominal spending fell -3.2% to $676.6 million.

Kauai arrivals rose 10.3% to 115,305 in September, and nominal spending increased 28.9% to $224.2 million.

Hawaii island visitors rose 8.6% to 129,444. Nominal spending on Hawaii island increased 28.7% to $254.8 million.

However, arrivals to Maui plummeted 57.1% to 94,221 visitors in September, while nominal spending plunged 52.6% to $203.2 million.

DBEDT Director James Kunane Tokioka said in a statement, “The impacts from the Maui wildfires were significant in September 2023 with both visitor arrivals and visitor expenditures down by more than 50 percent for Maui for the month compared to 2022.”

Tokioka added, “Visitor arrivals on Maui in September 2023 (94,221) recorded the lowest since February 2021 and visitor spending of $203.2 million on Maui in September 2023 was the lowest since March 2021.With the reopening of West Maui that started in October, tourism on Maui is expected to improve over the next few months.”

Mayor Maui Richard Bissen recently announced that West Maui, which had been undergoing a phased reopening since the deadly Aug. 8 Lahaina fire, would fully reopen Wednesday. While Maui bookings have improved slightly since then, hotel occupancy at Maui hotels is not even close to normal, said Keith Vieira, principal of KV &Associates, Hospitality Consulting.

“First quarter will probably be back to 50% of 2023 in Kaanapali, but Wailea will be better than that,” Vieira said.

Richards said Maui is a major reason for the decline in September demand as well as future demand for Hawaii as a whole.

But that’s only part of the equation. U.S. travel demand, in general, is undergoing a more pronounced seasonal slowdown than normal. Also, Hawaii is no longer the No. 1 travel destination for Japanese travelers, who since summer have favored South Korea.

While Labor Day boosted travel by U.S. households early in the month, data from the Omnitrak Travel Market Penetration Index showed that demand slowed below prior-year levels for September overall.

Chris Kam, Omnitrak president and chief operating officer, said in a statement, “While the usual seasonal slowdown in September is not surprising, the dip in travel was more pronounced than expected.”

“With September travel penetration aligning more closely with 2021 than prior year levels, residents in communities with overtourism concerns are experiencing some ‘breathing space’ in the Fall shoulder period following a strong summer,” Kam said.

Omnitrak founder and CEO Pat Loui said in a statement that a reason is that “international destinations continued to attract U.S. travelers in September (+18.1%), according to the National Travel and Tourism Office’s year-over-year data.”

Loui added that the “U.S. Travel Association’s Travel Price Index rose +4.4% over prior year levels, adding rising prices to the challenging marketplace conditions facing domestic destinations in September.”

To be sure, Hawaii’s largest tourist source market, the U.S. West, saw September arrivals drop to 329,187. It was a sharp 16.7% year-over-year drop — however, up 7.6% from September 2019.

Nominal spending from the U.S. West fell to $606 million, a 21.8% decrease from September 2022 but a 30% increase from September 2019.

Arrivals from the U.S. East, Hawaii’s second-largest tourist source market, fell 1o.1% to 153,635 visitors. Nominal visitor spending from the U.S. East declined 3.9% to $404.1 million; however, it was 39.9% higher than September 2019.

Japan rebounded enough to reclaim its place as Hawaii’s third-largest source market. Arrivals from Japan in September rose 87.9% year-over-year to 51,350 visitors; however that was still down 64.3% from the pre-pandemic September 2019, when 143,928 visitors from Japan came to Hawaii.

Visitors from Japan spent $79.6 million on a nominal basis in September 2023. That was up 66.5% from September 2022 but down 59.5% from September 2019 when nominal spending reached $196.5 million.

Eric Takahata, managing director of the Hawaii Tourism Authority’s contractor Hawaii Tourism Japan, said arrivals from Japan are still forecast by year’s end to be about 40% to 50% recovered to 2019. Takahata said early reports from major Japanese carriers are forecasting that arrivals from Japan to Hawaii will recover to within 70% to 80% of 2019 sometime in 2024.

The recovery of Japanese visitors to Hawaii is still challenged by unfavorable exchange rates and U.S. inflation, which is exacerbating price hikes, he said.

Takahata said while carriers have begun restoring capacity between Japan and Hawaii, some have told him that manpower issues are affecting operations and routes. He said it was good news that Delta resumed flying between Japan and Hawaii in October.

Hawaiian Airlines also restarted nonstop service between Tokyo Haneda and Kona on Sunday. Hawaiian Airlines will gradually return to its original thrice-weekly schedule in March. Hawaiian paused the route in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. By March 13, the airline said, it expects Japan capacity will be 59% above summer 2023 levels.

Takahata said another issue affecting recovery of Japanese visitors to Hawaii is the amount of competition from destinations like South Korea, Australia, Singapore, Southeast Asia and Europe, he said.

“A lot of Japanese suppliers tell us, ‘If we can go to Rome for eight days and it’s the same cost as a four-day trip to Hawaii and the hotel categories are one or two categories up that we’ll do Europe now and put Hawaii off for a bit,” he said.

Takahata said HTA recently returned Hawaii Tourism Japan’s budget to $9 million, the 2019 level. He said it had been at $6.5 million or less for the past couple of years; meanwhile, competitive destinations were getting an edge on Hawaii.

“Singapore prior to the pandemic was the sixth or seventh most desired destination to go by Japanese. Now they are the third,” Takahata said. “Hawaii used to be No. 1, but we are third now. This summer we flip-flopped with Korea.”

He said Hawaii Tourism Japan has launched a new campaign called “Beautiful Hawaii,” which is “more about coming to Hawaii than coming to Hawaii properly.” The campaign includes the values of the Malama Hawaii campaign, which focused on caring for Hawaii, but it doesn’t lead with it, Takahata said.

Richards said the messaging in Hawaii’s core U.S. market got confusing after the Maui wildfires and now needs some tweaks, too.

“They have a dual mission,” Richards said. “They have to obviously appease the community and be very sensitive to the community and at the same time promote tourism to get the Maui economy back in order. I think that’s a delicate balance, and it’s very complex to do that.”

He said the result, so far, has been unclear messaging. Negative social media coupled with official messaging about how to travel to Maui also has raised concerns about resident sentiment toward travelers, Richards said.

“People aren’t sure that they will be welcomed. If they are celebrating an anniversary or a wedding, they want to know that they can do so freely and not have to feel bad,” Richards said.