The Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation seems incapable of learning from its mistakes when it comes to raising false expectations about Honolulu rail, misleading the public on problems and stifling criticism.

Board members blathered anew about expanding the line to Ala Moana Center based on an estimate full of unknowables that showed a possible $580 million surplus by time the budget-busting $10 billion train reaches its end at the Civic Center in 2031.

They were ready to change the plan again before the Federal Transit Administration has even given final approval or funding to HART’s latest proposed recovery plan.

Never mind that $500 million isn’t nearly enough to reach Ala Moana or that HART’s chief operating officer, Rick Keene, warned the “surplus” is essentially Monopoly money at this point and forecasts change regularly.

Or that HART is just beginning the tricky utility relocation along Dillingham Boulevard and hasn’t yet received bids on the final downtown segment — and has failed to complete any of the three earlier segments on budget.

Board member Robert Yu admonished colleagues not to get ahead of themselves.

“Instead of just talking about it, maybe we could put together some kind of business plan,” he said. “It seems like HART always uses more money than we estimate.”

While overblowing a highly speculative surplus, the agency downplayed potentially serious issues with construction bids for the downtown segment.

The deadline for bids is being delayed from October to December or January, and rail CEO Lori Kahikina claimed a rush of contractors seeking licenses for Lahaina reconstruction has backlogged potential rail bidders needing licenses.

State licensing officials said this is flat-out untrue, stating “at present, there does not exist a backlog or processing delays for licensing applications before the Contractors Licensing Board.”

Kahikina’s claim is troubling for its falsity, but also because it could indicate bigger problems with bids for the critical final segment.

Extensions of bid deadlines are often caused by lack of interest among bidders or signals that bids will come in higher than HART’s tight budget, which could endanger its agreement with the FTA.

HART Chair Colleen Hanabusa created more unnecessary drama by ramping up her efforts to muzzle nonvoting board member Natalie Iwasa, appointed by House Speaker Scott Saiki as one of several state monitors assigned to the project as part of the most recent legislative bailout out giving HART more funds from the excise and hotel taxes.

By Hanabusa’s new rules the outspoken and often critical Iwasa would have to identify herself as a state appointee when making public statements. It follows her exclusion of Iwasa from the board’s executive sessions for refusing to sign an unduly restrictive nondisclosure agreement concocted to specifically target her.

Saiki and the state attorney general have objected to both as violations of free speech rights and legislative intent, but it’s getting time to do more than write letters.

If HART keeps refusing to accord legislative watchdogs the same information and access as city- appointed board members, the state should declare the city in violation of the bailout law and suspend payments to HART from the rail taxes until the agency complies.

Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com.