Members of Hawaii’s visitor industry are preparing for the reopening of West Maui tourism on Oct. 8, but many are bracing for a slow festive season given the breadth of the wildfire-­related cancellations, and some say full recovery might not occur until at least spring.

Gov. Josh Green declared Friday in a statewide address that the West Maui communities of Kaanapali, Napili, Honokowai and Kapalua would reopen two months after the Aug. 8 wildfires that destroyed nearby Lahaina, which will remain closed as county, state and federal emergency responders continue with their disaster efforts.

Green said in his address, “Beginning Oct. 8, all travel restrictions will end, and West Maui will be open to visitors again, so people from Hawaii and around the world can resume travel to this special place and help it begin to recover economically. This difficult decision is meant to bring hope for recovery to the families and businesses on Maui that have been so deeply affected in every way by the disaster.”

The downturn in travel to Maui after the wildfires has wreaked havoc on Maui’s tourism-dependent economy. It also caused a ripple effect throughout the state both from the drop in tourism spending on Maui, which helps fuel state coffers, and from a general downturn in tourism across the state due to visitors not understanding geography or feeling unwelcome. Indeed, on Thursday the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism estimated the loss from business closures and visitor expenditures related to the wildfire on Maui at $11 million a day. DBEDT, due in part to Maui, also revised its statewide economic growth projections for 2023 and 2024 downward, to 1.1% from 1.8% for 2023 and to 1.5% from 2% for 2024.

At the same time, there has been a strong push by some residents to delay the return of tourism to Maui while emergency responders still work to identify victims and the missing and clean up debris and hazardous materials. They also have said that West Maui needs time to heal from the fire that killed at least 115 people and destroyed more than 2,000 homes. Another issue raised by those who want to keep West Maui closed to tourism longer is that much of West Maui’s labor force is still displaced and that too many challenges with child care and schools remain for them to return to work with ease.

Tamara Paltin, who holds the County Council seat for West Maui and chairs the Disaster, Resilience, International Affairs, and Planning Committee, said Monday that some constituents were blindsided by Green’s announcement, which came just days after he had indicated that he was exploring reopening West Maui just to kamaaina visitors in October and postponing West Maui’s tourism reopening to November or December.

“I don’t think any of the (West Maui) community was part of the decision-making,” Paltin said.

Paltin said reopening should have been tied to benchmarks such as achieving long-term housing for displaced West Maui residents, ensuring adequate child care and placing West Maui children in schools. Maui County said in a media release that there were still 7,282 people housed overnight Sunday at 32 locations around Maui, including hotels.

Paltin said a better economic solution would have been stepping up efforts to shore up tourism in other parts of Maui rather than inviting tourists back to West Maui so quickly.

Still, the situation has been dire for Maui’s visitor industry and those who rely on it.

Jack Richards, president and CEO of Pleasant Holidays, said 44% of Pleasant’s business comes from Maui bookings, which since the fire are down 90% year over year. He said Pleasant Holidays’ demand for Hawaii, in general, since the Maui wildfires is down 55%.

“We have canceled 1,000 bookings to Maui since Aug. 8 to the tune of $8 million to $10 million,” Richards said.

Richards said Pleasant Holidays was up 24% in 2024 for Hawaii until the wildfires.

“This morning we were only up 5% for Hawaii in 2024, and we expect that to go negative over the next two weeks,” he said.

Keith Vieira, principal of KV &Associates, Hospitality Consulting, said cancellations slowed somewhat following the announcement of an official reopening date, which is positive in that it allows travelers to plan. However, he said the hotel industry is still anticipating minimal occupancy recovery for Maui in October and November.

“We’re hoping to see bookings pick up in December and roll into the first quarter,” Vieira said.

But Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawaii Hotel Alliance, cautioned that recovery will look like a “trickle rather than a strong faucet coming on.”

Gibson said this reopening will not be accompanied by the strong pent-up demand for travel that followed the easing of pandemic restrictions.

“It’s a slow time of year, and it won’t be like after the virus where people were receiving money from the government,” he said. “The reopening date may help (the festive season) a little bit. I think we’ll be at 30% to 35% occupancy in Kapalua, and it won’t be as strong in Kaanapali. It may be April or May before we catch up with reservations.”

Gibson said visitor arrivals to Maui need to improve so that people can return to work. He said when hotel occupancy is at 30% to 35%, the labor need for most hotels is only at 45% to 50%.

He said as hotel rooms reopen, it provides opportunities for more local stores, restaurants and activities to reopen, too.

Toni Marie Davis, executive director of the Activities &Attractions Association of Hawaii Inc., said as a result of the disaster, some Maui members are closed, and others have cut operations by as much as 50% due to the drop in demand.

“If you go to Kahului and you see the fields of rental cars, it’s like COVID all over again. This is going to be a slow ship to turn around,” Davis said. “I’ve also been hearing that the downturn isn’t just on Maui. Members across the islands are struggling a little bit — not to the same degree as Maui, but there is definitely a downturn.”

Even after Friday’s reopening announcement, it’s clear that opinions differ on whether now is a good time to visit Maui.

Some travel writers are encouraging travel by publishing pieces on all the deals that airlines are offering to Maui. However, others have suggested visitors to Maui aren’t welcome at this time, and if they go that the experience will be off as Lahaina is gone and other businesses have reduced operations.

On Sunday, Forbes addressed the elephant in the room when it published a travel column from Will McGough titled “Hawaii Travel Update: Tourists Could Be Staying Alongside Displaced Residents at West Maui Hotels in October.”

McGough writes,”In my last Hawaii Travel Update before the weekend, I offered some advice to those who plan to visit Maui in the near future. Among them was to consider that residents have suffered a great tragedy, and to behave accordingly. Flaunting your fun or overly enjoying yourself in front of people who are suffering might not be the best look.”

Hawaii Tourism Authority Chief Brand Officer Kalani Ka‘ana‘ana said Monday that the state is working on consolidating hotel room blocks for noncongregate sheltering because it allows for more efficient wraparound services.

“It also helps with some of the tension and reducing possible tension between kamaaina who are picking up the pieces and those who are trying to come with good intentions to help make sure that those who want to work can continue to do so,” he said.

He added that the HTA board recently approved a $2.6 million Maui Marketing Recovery Plan, which is centered around a new Malama Maui campaign and prioritizes rebuilding travel demand from the United States market to Maui in the wake of the devastating Lahai­na wildfires. The plan will be augmented in another two weeks or so when HTA releases marketing materials centered around Maui voices.

He said the campaign will run through the end of October and will continue to focus on HTA’s key source markets in the U.S. West, which include California, Washington and Oregon in particular and then some of the East Coast focus in New York and Chicago, etc.

Paltin said if the state is promoting tourism to West Maui, care must be taken to ensure that displaced residents are satisfactorily housed before Oct. 8 and that there is adequate child care and a plan for schools. She said a tourism reopening is still likely to be “uncomfortable.”

“There’s a lot of people who are still very raw emotionally, and sometimes it can be just one insensitive action or insensitive comment,” Paltin said.