Hawaii’s unemployment rate dipped to 3.0% in June, its lowest level in more than three years, and is
expected to keep heading lower as the state’s economy strengthens.
The seasonally adjusted rate could fall another half-
percentage point by the end of this year, according to Eugene Tian, chief economist for the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. The last time the jobless rate was lower was in March 2020 when it hit 2.2%. The following month, the number spiked to 22.6% as COVID-19 began to take
its toll across the country. The all-time low was a
four-month stretch of 1.9% from September through
December 2017.
“Unemployment has been trending down since the beginning of the year and has been below the U.S. average since March this year,” Tian said Thursday after the data was released. “We may see the similar unemployment rate as in 2019 at around 2.5% by the end of the year. The average unemployment rate for the year may come down to 3%, from 3.5% in 2022.”
Tian said the unemployment rate is decreasing because the labor force has been stable for the past six months; the number of people employed continues to increase, probably due to many starting self-employed jobs; and more people are finding jobs or starting their own business.
Hawaii’s rate was
significantly better than the U.S. rate, which fell to 3.6% in June from 3.7% in May.
The state’s labor force, which includes those who are employed, those who are unemployed but actively seeking work and those who are self-employed, remained at 678,750 in June, the same level as in May.
The number of people employed rose to 658,400 — the highest level since April 2020 — from 657,400.
“This is due to the continued economic recovery,” Tian said.
The number of unemployed people fell by 1,050, to 20,300 from 21,350, in May because more people found jobs or started their own business, Tian said. It was the fewest number of unemployed people in the state since April 2020.
Despite more people finding jobs, nonfarm payroll positions fell in June
by 1,500, to 629,300 from 630,800 in May, with the professional and business services category showing the biggest job decrease with 1,100 positions.
Tian said the contradiction between the labor force data and the nonfarm payrolls are due to the statistics coming from different
surveys.
Nonfarm payroll jobs are calculated from a mail survey of employers and are considered a better indicator of job growth due to a larger sample size than the labor force data, which is compiled from a telephone survey of households. In the payroll count, one person might be counted multiple times if that person has multiple jobs.
The jobless rate rose in the state’s four major counties in June from May. State and national labor force data is adjusted for seasonal factors, but the county jobs data does not take into account variations such as the winter holiday and summer vacation seasons.
Honolulu County’s jobless rate increased to 3.3% from 2.6%, Hawaii County’s rate jumped to 3.8% from 3.0%, Kauai County’s rate rose to 3.2% from 2.5% and Maui County’s rate increased to 3.1% from 2.5%. In Maui County, Maui’s rate rose to 3.0% from 2.5%. Molokai’s rate increased to 7.0% from 4.2%. Lanai’s rate increased to 2.0% from 1.6%.
