I was delighted to read the messages conveyed in two recent letters to the editor on June 13: “Most Oahu homes won’t survive big hurricane” and “State should reinstate hurricane relief fund.” Indeed, most homes, not only on Oahu, but also on the other islands, won’t be able to sustain hurricane-force destructive winds, torrential downpour and storm surges on low-lying coasts, particularly a major hurricane with wind speed of 111 miles per hour or greater.

Two examples of damage in Hawaii caused by hurricanes are given. In November 1982, Kauai suffered major property damage from Hurricane Iwa approaching $250 million (1983 dollars). This weak hurricane occurred when the strong 1982-83 El Niño event nearly reached its maximum intensity. Ten years later, Iniki, a major hurricane, ravaged Kauai and western Oahu in 1992 with damage of $3.1 billion, which is equivalent to $6 billion in 2021.

Because of the heavy loss, insurance companies were pulling out from Hawaii after Iniki for many years and the Hawaii Hurricane Relief Fund (HHRF) was subsequently created in 1993 by state legislators to help Hawaii owners for hurricane insurance coverage should the private sector becomes unreliable.

While there has been no catastrophic damage in Hawaii caused by hurricanes since 1992, let’s not forget that several close calls were encountered.

For example, in 2015, a very strong El Niño year and a very active season, Hawaii was sandwiched by three major hurricanes over the central and eastern North Pacific simultaneously, an unprecedented phenomenon. In 2018, Hurricane Lane, a major hurricane, caused a serious scare to Oahu residents for several days because of its intensity, slow speed and close distance to Oahu. Lane also brought strong wind and torrential rainfall (58 inches) to the Big Island. Two years later, Hurricane Douglas in 2020 passed dangerously close to Oahu.

Studies show that the mean number of hurricanes and tropical storms over the central North Pacific, which extends from 140°W to the dateline and from the equator northward, during El Niño years is three times higher than that during La Niña years. This confirmed what happened during the last three years of rather quiet hurricane activity when La Niña prevailed.

Closer to home for a much smaller region, Hawaii is more likely to experience hurricanes when El Niño develops, and the difference in tropical cyclone (hurricane and tropical storm combined) frequency between El Niño and non-El Niño years is statistically significant.

As El Niño is currently brewing and our hurricane season has just started, it is prudent to pay particular attention to hurricane development, track, intensity, and emergency management response during the next five months until November, recalling that Hurricane Iwa occurred in late November 1982. Given the odds of hurricane threats to the islands, it is critically important to reinstate the HHRF and possibly increase the amounts of funds available as the property values in Hawaii have soared during the last decade or so.

Pao-Shin Chu, Ph.D., is a professor/state climatologist in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii-Manoa.