For most people, COVID-19 would seem to be in the rear-view mirror. And yet it still bears watching that mirror, to be sure the three-year pandemic keeps receding. Both of these things can be true.
A spike in infections and hospitalizations since early March has been generally easing, according to state data. In hospitalizations, which is the most closely watched metric currently, the seven-day average population count has bobbled: over the past six weeks: 56, 69, 52, 72, 65 and, as of Wednesday, 68.
And, Gov. Josh Green observed this week, that level is around 85% below 393, Hawaii’s pandemic peak.
This is encouraging, of course, given the imminent end of the federal public health emergency on May 11, when costs and rapid access to tests and treatments will change, particularly for the uninsured.
For that reason among many others, it would make sense to take reasonable precautions against an infection, especially if there’s a social event exposing vulnerable elders and others for whom the virus can be much more dangerous.
Green, who has tracked the numbers for years, said Monday in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s “Spotlight Hawaii” webcast that those hospitalized at the time were 69 years old or older.
So guarding against casually passing it on to seniors and those with health concerns is important — but confusing.
The Cochrane Review in January published a study that was inconclusive on whether interventions promoting mask-wearing slow the spread. However, that “has been widely misinterpreted” to mean that the masks themselves don’t work, according to a statement from Cochrane.
Further, doing the right thing also will become more expensive, without the convenient and free at-home tests that have circulated for so long.
Medicare is expected to share costs with members for some tests and treatments, although recommended vaccines and tests ordered by a health-care provider will still be free.
In advance of this change, the Food and Drug Administration has issued new protocols on the COVID-19 bivalent vaccines, those developed last year to be effective against newer virus variants.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention approved the guidance: Those age 65 and older can get an additional dose of the bivalent shot if their first was received at least four months earlier. Those with weakened immune systems can receive the second dose two or more months after their previous booster shot.
The youngest children, age 6 months to 5 years, still need a multiple-dose protocol, but parents should consult with a doctor because of vaccine variations.
Otherwise, everyone 6 and older should receive a single dose of a bivalent vaccine. The bivalent is also authorized for anyone unvaccinated — the older vaccines are no longer authorized in the U.S.
This is especially critical information for seniors over 65, according to Tim Brown, a senior research fellow at the East-West Center who heads an epidemiological team and who has been tracking COVID-19 as well as HIV.
In an April 19 update, Brown wrote that those who had only the original two-dose vaccine have just 13% protection against hospitalization.
“If you have 65-plus friends who haven’t had a bivalent boost, they’re at almost as high a risk of hospitalization as someone who is unvaccinated,” he added.
For the rest of the population, a little common sense is still required. Masks still can help in travel and crowded places, especially if such exposure would increase risks to oneself or close contacts.
Hawaii residents may want to forget about this virus — but for now, it’s still there to remind us, in ways that are still sickening.
