State legislators appear more primed than ever to legalize recreational marijuana in their upcoming session, and it could shape up as a big oversell.

For years, lawmakers have junketed to big states with legal pot and returned intoxicated about potential tax riches for Hawaii. The Democratic Party has listed legalization among its top priorities.

But last week, Democratic Rep. Ryan Yamane, whose health committee has partial jurisdiction, dimmed high expectations for recreational weed with sober math that’s long overdue.

Yamane told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s “Spotlight Hawaii” the projected $50 million tax revenue from recreational pakalolo in our small state would barely pay administrative costs and provide little for other programs.

“There’s not much that $50 million can pay for,” he said. “So there is not … this huge windfall that will be able to subsidize education or health services.”

Marijuana advocates disagree and estimate tax revenues more like $80 million, which is still hardly a bonanza. Little would be left after paying administrative costs, educating the public, and dealing with health and social impacts.

It doesn’t mean we don’t consider legalization, just that we admit the revenue would be a wash, at best, and focus more on the health and social considerations and potential for abuse.

Recreational marijuana has effectively been legal in Hawaii for six years, since the Legislature established the state’s medical marijuana program.

Medical marijuana was originally intended for patients with severe diagnoses such as cancer, lupus, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, glaucoma and rheumatoid arthritis.

But legislators threw it open by also allowing use for conditions such as pain, nausea and muscle spasms — symptoms anybody can say they have and are seldom challenged.

With these easy regulations, virtually everyone willing to invest about $250 annually for a brief health consult and a state card can buy marijuana at state-licensed dispensaries and use it however they wish. There are even arrangements for tourists.

Despite the loose rules, the medical program has been a disappointment.

Annual tax revenues are only about $2.5 million, not surprising since the state can hardly call it medicine and then slap “sin” taxes on it.

The dispensaries, meantime, complain that high overhead from state regulations prices their weed well above the still-thriving illegal market, greatly diminishing their sales.

Legalizing recreational marijuana wouldn’t solve the problem.

Sales would go up, but so would taxes, and prices from legal sellers would still be far higher than the black market, which Hawaii and other states have for decades failed to control despite millions in enforcement.

The industry can’t credibly argue that legalizing marijuana would have the benefit of decreasing pressure on the criminal justice system, and then demand a crackdown on the black market that would stress the system more.

The issue has moved slowly because Gov. David Ige opposes fully legalized pot, but Lt. Gov. Josh Green, the Democratic candidate to replace Ige, favors legalization.

Whatever happens in the election between Green and Republican James “Duke” Aiona, who opposes legalization, we should proceed clearheaded and build slowly from the existing medical marijuana infrastructure.

Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com.