Following months of drought, Hawaii’s wilderness and undeveloped lands are tinder dry and in danger of blowing up into a raging wildland fire.
The National Interagency Fire Center just released its latest national fire forecast, and it describes Hawaii as being especially vulnerable to wildland fire over the next three to four months.
The forecast comes from the Boise, Idaho, home to the fire management programs of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management and Bureau of Indian Affairs. The National Weather Service is also a partner agency.
The center’s four-month weather outlook for Hawaii calls for near- to below-normal rainfall with the rainy season expected to start up sometime in December.
Until then, drought conditions are expected to persist on most of the islands, with La Nina-influenced tradewinds helping to generate periods of “critical fire weather and flammable fuel conditions.”
“A few National Weather Service Red Flag Warnings were issued during August and that potential remains the next few months. Significant fire potential is projected to be above normal from September through December, especially impacting the leeward sides of the islands,” the forecast says.
Honolulu Fire Department Capt. Keith Ito called the drought concerning, especially on the dry west side of Oahu, which generally experiences more wildland fires.
“Personally, for me, I’m on edge a little bit more,” said Ito, who is stationed in Nanakuli.
“Warmer temperatures and dry conditions? Sounds like a recipe for fire behavior to grow,” said state climatologist Pao-Shin Chu, a member of the Hawaii Drought Council.
Hawaii’s wildfire concern is largely a reflection of the ongoing drought that has continued to worsen this summer.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, now indicates that all areas of Hawaii are experiencing some level of drought, the first time that’s happened in five months.
The National Weather Service also released its latest drought outlook indicating that drought will persist across most of islands through at least November. Even the state’s wetter windward regions are expected to experience drought development, according to the forecast.
On Friday, Board of Water Supply Chief Engineer Ernie Lau urged Oahu residents to continue to conserve water in order to help compensate for the loss of a key source of city water due to the Navy Red Hill water contamination crisis.
“The National Weather Service is predicting dry conditions well up to November and possibly even into next spring. So if it goes into next spring, we will need everybody’s kokua to try to save water,” he told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s “Spotlight Hawaii” show.
Chu, a meteorology professor at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, said drought — and the associated danger of wildfire — likely will be a growing issue for Hawaii as the weather heats up under the spell of climate change.
Chu said Hawaii used to experience more frequent wet weather during years (such as this one) influenced by La Nina, the opposite of the El Nino weather pattern.
But La Nina’s relationship to rainfall, he said, appears to have changed over the past 40 to 50 years under the influence of another oceanwide climate pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Add an even larger phenomenon, global warming, and it could further influence how much moisture the islands see, Chu said.
According to the Hawaii State Data Book, more than 46,000 acres burned in 2021 — more acres than any other year in at least 20 years.
Much of that acreage was consumed in late July 2021 when the Big Island experienced what may have been the largest brush fire in Hawaii County’s history. The blaze destroyed two homes and prompted the evacuation of three communities, including Waikoloa Village.
So far in 2022, Oahu has seen nearly as many brush fires — 449 — as the island experienced all of last year — 458, according to the Honolulu Fire Department. More than half of them this year have occurred in Oahu’s parched leeward region.
“This past year we’ve had to fight a lot of brush fires — a lot of small ones,” said HFD’s Ito.
Interestingly, the amount of acreage burned on the Waianae Coast has generally stayed the same over the past 25 years, Ito said. That may have to do with the amount of development in the area.
“The brush fire footprint is smaller,” said Ito, one of the leaders in the department’s wildland program.
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Wildfire tips from HFD
>> Create at least a 30-foot safety zone around the house by removing brush and other vegetation.
>> Store flammable materials safely away from the exterior of your home.
>> Remove or cut back anything touching your house that can cause it to catch fire.
>> Report suspicious activity you may have seen before, during or after a fire.
>> Keep fire lanes and access points unobstructed to ensure fire apparatuses can reach your home.
>> Make and practice a family evacuation plan.
>> Wildland fire can spread to treetops.
>> Prune trees so the lowest branches are 6 to 10 feet from the ground.
