Ending the city’s rail route in Kakaako — two stations short of Ala Moana Center — will bring nearly four times as many passengers than originally expected to a busy thoroughfare that will need to be transformed into “a major transfer hub.”

The end of the line at Halekauwila and South streets near the state Circuit Court building will be known as the Civic Center station, where bus traffic also will dramatically increase.

Rail passengers going to destinations such as Ala Moana Center, the University of Hawaii and Waikiki would increase rail boardings and exits in Kakaako from the original forecast of 3,250 to 12,870 per day. The additional riders represent a difference of 296% from the previous rail plan and the current one to end construction in Kakaako.

“An estimated 80 percent of passengers arriving by rail would continue onwards via bus in the eastward direction during the morning peak period,” according to the latest ridership estimates from the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation. “Conversely, an estimated 84 percent of the westbound rail passengers would arrive at the station via bus during the morning peak.”

Rail passengers in Kakaako, where free and metered parking are already in short supply, are expected to overwhelmingly rely on TheBus system, which would increase city bus traffic.

In the peak morning period, only 16% of rail riders are expected to walk to and from the station, compared to 84% who would rely on TheBus, according to HART.

But details are scarce on how many buses will be needed and where passengers will get on and off them in plans submitted to the Federal Transit Administration in June.

The city operates its Alapai Transit Center at South King Street, but it’s a good 1-mile walk, made more difficult by heat or rain. Buses currently run westbound on the mauka side of Ala Moana Boulevard at South Street. But during the bulk of peak morning traffic, commuters will be heading eastbound, forcing them to cross busy Ala Moana Boulevard to catch buses heading into Ala Moana Center and Waikiki.

But those passengers arriving and leaving on foot in Kakaako could be good for business at Max & Lucy’s restaurant on Halekauwila Street.

If the system does end at Halekauwila and South streets, as currently planned, owner Mike Ingraham hopes foot traffic boosts his food sales. “I’ll believe the rail when it gets here,” said Ingraham. “I’ve been betting on rail for years.”

“I need more walkers,” he said. “But then a lot of things could happen (to rail construction) in the future.”

According to HART, “during the morning peak period (6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.), approximately 84 percent of the estimated 1,670 boardings and 80 percent of the 4,501 (passengers getting off) at the Civic Center Station will be arriving or departing the station via bus. … (There) will be almost three times as many riders in the eastbound direction than in the westbound direction during the morning peak period. ”

Kim Coco Iwamoto, treasurer of the Ala Moana-­Kakaako Neighborhood Board, has concerns about nearly 13,000 rail passengers moving through the area every day.

“Kakaako residents will want to know how many additional buses will be needed, especially during rush hour, to shuttle rail passengers from the South Street station through the district to Ala Moana Center, UH Manoa and Waikiki,” she wrote in an email to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. “We already have to contend with some pretty narrow streets, lots of construction and spotty sidewalks.

“It also raises concerns for those headed to the airport or Kapolei from the east side of the island: where will those rail passengers be parking their car if they board at the South Street station?” Iwamoto wrote. “Are they building a parking lot in Kakaako like they have in Kapolei? When Ala Moana Center was the eastern-­most station, riders from Hawaii Kai may have imagined parking their cars at the shopping center.”

Changing plan

HART last week began intensive testing of its rail system between the East Kapolei and Aloha Stadium stations, with the intention of turning it over to the city for paid passenger ridership after testing is completed. That is scheduled to happen in mid-January.

Future expansion calls for completing rail construction at Middle Street in February 2024, and then finishing at the Civic Center station in Kakaako by May 2029.

The previous plan called for a 20.2-mile, 21-station route from east Kapolei to Ala Moana Center, Hawaii’s largest transit hub, at a cost of $11.1 billion and a deficit of $1.3 billion the city could not afford.

In March, Mayor Rick Blan­giardi announced a truncated 18.75-mile, 19-station route costing $9.8 billion to build: $9.1 billion in construction costs, plus an additional savings of $650 million in financing costs.

Finishing construction in Kakaako — if approved by the FTA — also would mean the city will receive the federal government’s final share of $1.55 billion in funding, or $744 million.

But cutting the rail line short also means less riders.

Overall, HART predicts seeing 84,000 riders per week — 16,600 fewer than the previous plan, or a reduction of 16.5%.

Blangiardi last week told the Star-Advertiser that rail passengers will be pleased with the system when service begins. He said riders will enjoy the comfort of the trains and will be especially impressed by the “view plane” from the elevated tracks, known as guideways.

Ridership forecasts

Cutting costs also meant eliminating a 1,600-stall parking garage at the Pearl Highlands Station, adding to reduced rail ridership.

“The deferral of the parking garage is estimated to reduce total daily riders in the first year of full operations by 1,500, or approximately 1.7 percent,” HART wrote in its June “recovery plan” to the FTA.

The current estimates are based on assumptions of passengers connecting to rail via buses and by parking at rail stations, which include 900 stalls at East Kapolei, 1,000 at the University of Hawaii-West Oahu and 600 at Aloha Stadium.

HART said its updated June ridership forecasts mirror other ridership declines across the country. It cited the American Public Transit Association attributing declines to factors that include increases in ride-­sharing services and then-falling gas prices, which have since risen and are now falling again.

In Kakaako, HART said, “about 32 percent of the passengers are destined for the downtown Honolulu or Kaka‘ako areas, and would mostly continue via walking or biking. About 19 percent of the passengers are bound for either the Ala Moana or Mo‘ili‘ili area. About 19 percent would continue to UH Manoa, while about 30 percent would continue to Waikiki or beyond (including Kaimuki and East Honolulu). About 46 percent of the eastbound rail passengers who get off at the Civic Center Station are going to destinations beyond Ala Moana, and these passengers would need to transfer to a connecting bus, regardless of where the transfer point is located.”

The city’s Department of Transportation Services will simultaneously operate TheBus and rail — the country’s first fully automated system.

With the elimination of the Pearl Highlands Station’s parking garage, TheBus plans to deliver rail riders to Pearl Highlands via a new “major bus transit center with a dedicated access ramp from the H-2 freeway … enabling faster, more direct bus routings to the Pearl Highlands Station from the Central O‘ahu and North Shore communities,” according to HART.