It will start with an upset of an SEC team Saturday, and end with a loss to an old friend in late November.
This year’s fearless forecast shows the University of Hawaii football team going 6-7 — just like last year … but the path will be a lot different in many ways with Timmy Chang as head coach instead of Todd Graham.
For one thing, a lot more fans will actually get to attend the games at the Ching Complex.
The Warriors will do significantly better than the last place in the Mountain West that was predicted for them, but not quite good enough for a winning record.
Oh, they might qualify for a bowl game through the back door like last year … and this time, play in it, instead of having it canceled due to players testing positive for COVID-19.
Game 1: Vanderbilt
Aug. 27
There’s one advantage to having very few returning starters and a new coaching staff. In its season opener, Hawaii will enjoy the element of surprise. Very limited scouting material is available to the Commodores. Maybe that’s part of why they arrive here so early for this game.
Vandy went 2-10 in 2021, including a season-opening loss to East Tennessee State. Junior Mike Wright starts at quarterback He started five of the last six games last year, which were all losses to SEC teams.
The last time the Warriors played an SEC team in Hawaii, they beat Alabama in 2003 (with Chang starting at quarterback). That little streak continues, even though Vegas likes the Commodores by around a touchdown — a point spread that seems based on the idea that a bad team from the SEC must be better than a bad team from the Mountain West.
When the visiting team has no idea what to expect, take the home team. And being in Hawaii a week before a game is too long.
Win, 1-0
Game 2: Western Kentucky
Sept. 3
Remember Tyson Helton? Chang does. The former UH assistant was around for that win over Alabama in 2003, too. Now he’s the fourth-year head coach of the Hilltoppers. The Conference USA runners-up last year beat eight of their last nine opponents, including Appalachian State in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Bailey Zappe broke passing records in WKU’s Air Raid attack. He was drafted by the Patriots, and WKU will probably be counting on West Virginia grad transfer Austin Reed to try to keep the momentum going.
This should be an entertaining shootout, but probably a little bit more for the visitors. They lost a lot of key guys from last year, but have enough with the muscle memory of 2021’s nine wins to get it done.
Loss, 1-1
Game 3: at Michigan
Sept. 10
If you’ve ever had a job that was nearly impossible to succeed at but you still had to do, a friend may have given you this advice: “Think about the money.”
UH gets $1.9 million for this visit to the Big House, which could end up even more one-sided than the 63-3 carnage last time there, in 2016.
Loss, 1-2
Game 4: Duquesne
Sept. 17
The Warriors have played this solid FCS program once before, winning 42-21 in 2018.
Coach Jerry Schmitt brings a huge but young O-line and a 109-71 record in 17 years.
The Dukes got their first-ever win over an FBS program last year. But winning at Hawaii is a lot more difficult than against Ohio.
Win, 2-2
Game 5: at New Mexico State
Sept. 24
No home-and-home like last season? The Aggies provided a third of UH’s six wins in 2021.
The Warriors scored in all eight quarters against NMSU. Look for that trend to continue, as the Aggies are rebuilding with a new head coach. Jerry Kill was successful at Minnesota before having to resign due to medical problems. Maybe he can build something in Las Cruces, but it will take time.
Win, 3-2
Game 6: at San Diego State
Oct. 8
There should be a Conch Trophy awarded to the winner of this game each year, considering the shell’s cultural importance in both Aztec and Hawaiian history.
SDSU would get it this year, winning handily at the school’s spiffy new Snapdragon Stadium. The outcome won’t be as close as when time ran out on the Warriors last year at the Aztecs 18-yard line and UH lost 17-10.
Coach Brady Hoke has most of the defensive starters back who allowed just 19.8 points per game in a ’21 season that saw SDSU go 12-2 as conference runner-up. Braxton Burmeister, a grad transfer from Virginia Tech who prepped in San Diego, is expected to start at quarterback.
Loss, 3-3
Game 7: Nevada
Oct. 15
Quarterback Carson Strong is gone, and Chang and some of his staff’s knowledge of the Wolf Pack personnel comes in handy.
Nevada’s first-year head coach, Ken Wilson, has plenty of holes on both sides of the line to fill, too.
Hawaii gave up five turnovers and made two costly special teams mistakes in its 34-17 loss in Reno last season. Unless UH is that sloppy again, it wins this home game.
Win, 4-3
Game 8: at Colorado State
Oct. 22
Technically, this was Chang’s last job before taking the helm at his alma mater in January, as he followed Nevada head coach Jay Norvell to Fort Collins after last season. So did Wolf Pack quarterback Clay Millen and productive receivers Tory Holton and Melquan Stovall.
They should help the Rams start to live up to their program’s immense potential after last year’s 3-9 disappointment. CSU’s 2022 resurgence will include a home win over UH, which beat the Rams in a thrilling 50-45 shootout last season.
Loss, 4-4
Game 9: Wyoming
Oct. 29
Like the Warriors, the Cowboys were hit hard by the transfer portal, losing star receiver Isaiah Neyor (12 touchdowns) to Texas, and both starting cornerbacks to Oklahoma and UCLA. Chad Muma, one of the nation’s most productive linebackers, is gone to graduation and the NFL.
Wyoming running back Titus Swen is solid and should have a strong game at UH. But it won’t be enough to wrest the Paniolo Trophy from the Warriors, who surprisingly pounded the Cowboys 38-14 last year.
Win, 5-4
Game 10: at Fresno State
Nov. 5
Coach Jeff Tedford is back from retirement after his protege Kalen DeBoer left for Washington following last year’s 10-win season.
The Bulldogs were riding high after a fast start that included an upset of UCLA when the Warriors tripped them up 27-24 with freshman Brayden Schager at quarterback.
The Hawaii defensive players who were key to that big win are gone, and Fresno’s star quarterback Jake Haener is back and hungry for revenge after throwing four picks.
Loss, 5-5
Game 11: Utah State
Nov. 12
The Aggies went 11-3 last year, including proving they were no joke with a win over Oregon State in the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl.
The passing game needs to be rebuilt, but coach Blake Anderson can expect a strong running attack. Utah State is experienced on the offensive front, and Calvin Tyler is back after rushing for 884 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Warriors were never in a 51-31 loss at Logan last year, allowing the first 17 points. This will be closer, but by November UH’s defense will likely be facing depth challenges.
Loss, 5-6
Game 12: UNLV
Nov. 19
The Rebels game last year was one that got away from the Warriors after they led 10-7, losing 27-13 to a team that finished 2-10.
But freshman quarterback Cameron Friel from Kailua guided UNLV, while Charles Williams ran over the Warriors for 268 yards.
Friel starts the season third on the UNLV depth chart, and Williams was a super senior last year.
A lot can happen in three months, but at this point you have to like UH’s odds in this one.
Win, 6-6
Game 13: at San Jose State
Nov. 26
Chevan Cordeiro — formerly the face, right arm and legs of the Rainbow Warriors — is now a Spartan after leading the mass exodus to the transfer portal last year.
Assuming he’s still healthy this late in the season, Cordeiro will account for at least three touchdowns against a lot of guys who were on the UH defensive scout team when he was here.
Loss, 6-7
