Registered Democratic voters continue to give Lt. Gov. Josh Green high approval ratings and overwhelmingly said they will vote for him in his run to become Hawaii’s next governor.
Green would receive 55% of Democratic Primary votes if the election were held “today,” according to the results of the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s Hawaii Poll.
By comparison, Vicky Cayetano — a business entrepreneur and former Hawaii first lady — would receive 19% of the votes, followed by U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele with 16%.
The actual vote for both the Democratic and Republican party primary elections will be held Aug. 13, followed by the general election on Nov. 8.
On the Republican side, 48% of Republican primary voters would pick James “Duke” Aiona — a former deputy prosecutor, judge and two-term lieutenant governor.
The Hawaii Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C., from July 12 to 17. A total of 800 registered Hawaii voters were interviewed statewide by landline telephone and cell phones. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county. The poll’s overall margin for error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, but questions asked of only Democrat or Republican primary voters had larger margins of error.
For the 317 Democratic responses for their preference for governor and lieutenant governor in the Democratic primary, the margin of error was plus or minus 5.6%. For the 133 responses for the Republican primary, the margin of error was 8.7 percentage points.
Aiona regularly cites his Christian faith as he makes his third run for the state’s highest office; he won back-to-back Republican primaries, only to lose consecutively to Neil Abercrombie and then to Gov. David Ige.
In an email statement to the Star-Advertiser, Aiona wrote: “I am humbled by the results of the Star-Advertiser Poll. We will continue to work hard each day to gain the trust and respect of Hawaii voters as this poll is merely a snapshot of a point in time. It is with a grateful heart that we express our fondest mahalo nui loa for your vote and support of our campaign!”
BJ Penn — an Ultimate Fighting Champion Hall of Famer — followed Aiona, with 26% of the Republican voters polled choosing him. Honolulu City Council member Heidi Tsuneyoshi trailed with 9%.
Penn’s name recognition is enormous among Republican voters.
Only 4% of Republican voters do not recognize his name, according to the Hawaii Poll, compared with 12% of Republicans who do not recognize Aiona’s name.
In a statement to the Star- Advertiser, Penn said: “We have tremendous confidence in the people of Hawaii. The only poll that matters is on Election Day.”
Of the Democrats who recognize Green’s name, a whopping 65% had a “favorable” opinion of him. Only 2% of voters did not recognize Green’s name, the lowest of all of the gubernatorial candidates.
Green’s high numbers are similar to the January Hawaii Poll that was conducted before Kahele gave up his congressional reelection bid to instead announce his gubernatorial candidacy in May.
In the January Hawaii Poll, 58% of Democratic voters said they would pick Green if the primary were held at that time.
Green’s theoretical vote tally dipped from 58% in January to 55% in July. But his approval rating has since soared from 56% to 65%.
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At the same time, the percentage of Democratic voters who do not recognize Green’s name fell from 7% in January to 2% in July.
“Josh Green has always had high favorables, and they continue to be high even though he’s been taking heat from his competitors over the last couple of months,” said Colin Moore, director of the University of Hawaii’s Public Policy Center. “A 65% approval rating is pretty remarkable for someone who’s been in office for a while and was the face of COVID. He’s still very popular.”
Green also has commanding leads in terms of fundraising and political endorsements.
Cayetano’s favorability skyrocketed from 13% in January to 38% in July, while the first Hawaii Poll measurement of Kahele’s favorability stood at 30% in July.
Asked for a comment about his numbers, Kahele told the Star- Advertiser in a terse email: “(My) official comment is: ‘Why dont you ask Andy Winer?’”
Winer has supported Hawaii candidates for years, including serving as a “general consultant” for Kahele’s successful, first-term run for Congress in 2020, but he now supports Green as an unpaid campaign volunteer. Winer previously served as Hawaii director for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and has helped U.S. Sens. Mazie Hirono and Brian Schatz on their campaigns.
When asked to respond, Winer said, “I helped Kai run for Congress. I don’t know what he’s talking about. He knows that I’m supporting Josh. Josh and I have been friends for almost 20 years.”
Poll participant and progressive Democrat Jennifer Martin, a 50-year-old Makawao tech writer and business consultant, said she prefers Kahele for governor, mostly because “Cayetano comes across as too conservative and Josh seems beholden to special interests.”
Another participant, Natasha Shinyame, a 40-year-old flooring contractor from Mililani, said she prefers Cayetano.
“Of course (former Gov.) Ben Cayetano’s her husband and did great stuff for the state, and I think she would be great for the state,” Shinyame said. “Behind every great man is a great woman.”
Cayetano communications director Lynne Waters wrote in a statement that, “Much has transpired since the interviews for this poll were conducted, notably the recent series of televised debates. Polished campaign ads show one dimension of an individual, but live, unedited television exposes the truth. Our campaign is gaining significant momentum, and our own internal polls show Vicky Cayetano has surged to a much stronger #2 in the race.
“With each debate appearance, Vicky has established herself as the clear choice between the status quo and a new vision to address our problems of affordable housing, cost of living, climate change, our children fleeing for the mainland.”
Untold other Democratic voters may subscribe to analyst Moore’s theory that Green’s efforts in helping guide Hawaii through the COVID-19 pandemic cemented his high approval ratings heading into the August primary election.
Larak Briscoe, a 45-year-old cook from Kapolei, who participated in the poll, said he has a clear preference in who he wants to be Hawaii’s next governor, a sentiment shared by his sister and brother-in-law.
“I would definitely say Josh Green,” Briscoe said. “I really liked his communication through the pandemic.”
Briscoe’s sister and her husband also met Green on separate occasions and made the same recommendation, Briscoe said. “‘He’s a great guy,’ they said.”
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